jj, fwiw -
some comments from CB on Friday wrt the trin-
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I think we had four TRIN readings over 2.0 after we broke the rising wedge on March 9th. Did you happen to keep the dates of those readings?
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I'll check after the close. 2.0's are one thing. Readings over 2.5 are another, as they are historical rarities to occur two days in a row.
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As I remember, the four readings were very close together (maybe 6-8 trading days). If you look, check between March 9-24. I could be wrong.
Seems that at least one of the four readings was pretty high.
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In March we had 3 consecutive closes above 2, and 2 consecutive closes above 2.5 (Mar 9 2.83, Mar 10 2.51, and Mar 11 2.36). On the 12th it was 0.41, and on the 15th it was 2.80.
Over that span the SPX dropped 40 handles. We got a tradable bounce that didn't last long, and the market hit its initial low a week later.
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(In March we had 3 consecutive closes above 2, and 2 consecutive closes above 2.5 (Mar 9 2.83, Mar 10 2.51, and Mar 11 2.36). On the 12th it was 0.41, and on the 15th it was 2.80).
. . . I remember that the TRIN readings were very extreme after we closed below the rising wedge on March 9.
(Over that span the SPX dropped 40 handles).
The break of the rising wedge put SPX 1102 IN PLAY.
(We got a tradable bounce that didn't last long),
We bounced from SPX 1102 on March 16 to SPX 1125.
( and the market hit its initial low a week later).
Yeah, with the 3.0+ TRIN reading that xxx mentioned, right before we bounced off the August 6 up trendline on March 24.
I didn't like the break of SPX 1102, and didn't think that we'd rally higher than SPX 1125-1127, but we got a 63 pt. straight-up rally . . .
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In that same time period of march 1st to 22nd, the dow gave up 600 points, and the HIGh trins exagerated the 5 and 10 day averages.
The higher trin reading of 335 on the 22nd was more indicative of the LOW point.
I would suspect the 2 highs trins of the last 2 days would lead to a similar decline into the July12th date.
Possible secondary lows around the 20th also, but after a brief option expire rebound.
AI
