Apple Inc (AAPL)

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In Steve Jobs' Dreams:

Apple Will Own 40 Percent Of The Smartphone Market By 2013


Tuesday, January 13, 2009; 6:59 PM
Little-known research firm Generator Research, which also counts Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) as one of its customers, is predicting that in the next four years, Apple will surpass Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and as the largest smartphone company, and that it will own 40 percent of the global market. If you don't believe it, here's how they justify it: the report said Apple has "the resources, competencies and motivation to invest in the mobile sector just at the time when the economic climate is forcing many established players in the mobile industry to cut back on product development." Even more, it said Nokia's marketshare could fall from 40 percent today to 20 percent in that same period. Of course, Apple won't get there with one measly iPhone 3G. Generator predicts that in order to sell 77 million iPhone in 2013, Apple will have a range of different models to address different market segments. Plus, the App Store will be a critical component, similar to iTunes for the music player, which made the music industry rewrite the rules. In 2013, the App store will be "developed to the point where third party developers have access to network assets that will allow them to write programs that can send messages and establish voice calls between different iPhones." Release.



Even if these predictions are completely off the wall, it should make everyone think hard about what the wireless industry will be like should Apple dominates it. Wireless carriers and others should in particular question Apple's motives, and perhaps as a contingency plan, think about partnering more with Nokia as it rolls out its Internet services, so there's not just one dominate company going forward.