I think the expected is most likely right.
I mean look at the data we got last week with expectations being too high.
Like I said, this is a global problem, US is at what 0 to .25%? Pound is at 1.5%
So either it is 50 basis points or maybe more. But the market has priced in .50. (that's my guess considering the tumble it's been taking)
To be successful in the trading game, find a sound strategy and then learn and understand the rules of your strategy.