Thanks BB- good advice,
Trends interest me -Barrington Research Associates, Inc.
Mortgage Applications Signaling Slower Housing Activity:
Even though the Fed has yet to raise rates, and mortgage rates were little changed last week, mortgage applications fell in a continuing downtrend. Since applications precede any home closings, they obviously represent a leading indicator for near-term sales of either new or existing homes or both. Recent trends indicate that housing activity will be slowing in the period ahead. The MBA composite index of mortgage applications fell 4.4% in the most recent week ended June 25, to 575.0. That offset a good part of the modest gain in the prior two weeks, which was preceded by five straight weeks of decline and a steady yearlong downtrend. The most recent index reading was down 65% from a year ago.
Once again, the decline was led by the more volatile and interest-rate sensitive Refinancing component index, which fell 4.7%, to 1386.9. That was the second straight weekly decline, for the eighth decline in the past nine weeks, over which period the index fell 45%. The index is also down close to 84% from the year earlier level. The Purchase component index was down 4.2% last week, to 435.4, after two weeks of modest gains. Since this index tracks applications for actual home purchases, it is the important indicator for judging future housing activity. This index has been holding up much better than the refinancing component and is roughly unchanged from a year ago. It is also higher than it was in early 2004. Nevertheless, it has been in a downtrend for the past few months and, as a leading indicator, is telling us that housing activity growth will be moderating as the year progresses. So far, it is only signaling a modest decline, but that could change if there is a sharp rise in mortgage rates.
