The Stock Trader's Almanac

[Stock]

The "First Five Days" of January barometer is next.

Up first 5 trading days historically means a positive close for the year.

January's First Five Days: An Early Warning System

The last 36 up First Five Days were followed by full year gains 31 times for an 86.1% accuracy ratio and a 13.7% average gain in all 36 years. The five exceptions include flat 1994 and four related to war. Vietnam military spending delayed start of 1966 bear market. Ceasefire imminence early in 1973 raised stocks temporarily. Saddam Hussein turned 1990 into a bear. The war on terrorism, instability in the Mideast and corporate malfeasance shaped 2002 into one of the worst years on record. The 22 down First Five Days were followed by 11 up years and 11 down.