Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Back From Vacation

I was able to keep an eye on the markets, but couldn't post. The only important thing that happened was the Wave 4 out of late October lows was invalidated.

The general consensus for the Wave 4 is now starting from the November lows. I agree this is a corrective rally; however, I disagree on the degree of wave. I think it's a smaller degree wave 2, with the huge gap-tacular Wave 3 of 3 taking place after the inauguration. The longer view of being in WAVE C of a decade long Flat still holds.

The reason for another degree of wave is based on the December sideways movement. From the early december highs it looks like a triangle formed. The means wave c of the correction is left. Waves 2 and 4 of a motive wave have never both been seen to be zigzags.

One word of caution about the timing of the top of the bounce: the ABX subprime mortgage index has a nearly completed zigzag, and looks like it is about to roll over. This has been a good leading indicator for the equity markets.