Now....Your estimates for when investors would sell are far too low, in my opinion.
1) 13g filers are presumably in the know as to what revenue projections SPNG will expect in the next 1-2 years.
2) Fair value should be 15-20X projected earnings for the next 12 month period. With the growth trend, 20X may even be low.
3) 13g filers will want the fair value or more in order to sell to a short.
4) My modeling estimates EPS after taxes to be 18% of Revenue.
Revenue: FY 2009 Rev of $50MM, EPS of $9MM
FY 2010 Rev of $130MM, EPS of $23.4MM
Capitalized value: FY 2010 23.4 X 15 P/E = $351MM
5) Now here's the kicker! O/S shares of 150MM means the share price(fair value) should be approximating $351/150, or
$2.34 per share. Don't expect this to show up in the price until the market can see the annualized run rate of $130MM.
This, my friends, may be as close as three quarters away, with the share price building until the 2010K. (all my opinion)
6) So, using this model, the 13g filers will have to decide on a time/value for selling. $.15-.20 per share is far and away too low for this performance. Most of these investors(as would I)have to pay 40% or more in taxes to sell out in the very near future. My money says wait to sell when the Revenue stream has been realized, when the long term capital gains tax rate is 15%, plus State. MORE GAIN WITH LESS TAXES!
Many in the know realize what this company will become and are out to maximize their investment. I have heard those exact words from some of them.
AI
