Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[osprey]

<<I was kinding or praying that we might get a little rally into the New Year, you know that optimistic Bear Market rally, where we think that the worse is over with, even with all of these stimulus packages, and a new President, reality will set in. The real economy and its numbers will surface, and people will begin to realize that they still have alot of debt, the country has alot more debt, and the economy is chugging along, but no real pick-up will occur. Therefore we get that final leg down, and stocks get thrown out with the bath water.>>

That is what happened with the last bubble, NASDAQ Y2K. There was a rally about year 1 post crash. The fundamentals wouldn't support it and the rally failed and ended up going through the bottom and setting another bottom.

A lot of people thought the first bottom was the real one and got burned pretty badly. The whole crash took 2 1/2 years and never even got near 5K again. The problem with getting burned too many times, you lose your mental capital and can't take advantage of the inevitable rallies.

Wouldn't surprise me if we had a 4 month rally early next year. If the economy doesn't follow through, followed by another crash to DOW 6K or so. At this point, no reason to guess, the information needed doesn't exist yet.