petegunn re: TTN for a bounce.
this Major_Dropper has a nice history that could signify a lean to a long play for the bounce you are asking about.
Here are the previous numbers on past Major_Dropper moves.
(unfortunately, these numbers will not line up well.)
Pop % Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5
-12.0% 5.9% 3.0% 0.1% -1.0% 0.4%
-28.5% 9.7% 7.1% 5.9% 5.7% 3.5%
-16.3% 3.8% -3.5% 1.0% 5.1% 5.8%
-13.1% 0.1% 7.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
-14.8% -1.4% 2.1% -1.0% -7.3% -8.6%
-17.3% 3.1% 7.1% 19.8% 46.1% 47.7%
-12.2% 6.4% 4.1% 6.3% -2.7% -10.6%
History on TTN here shows that there have been 7 Major_Dropper days in the last 3 years.
5 of the 7 hit a bounce back hod of at least 3.1% on Day 1 after the drop. Another Major_Dropper day took till Day 2 to get hod +7%. And the last one acheived only +2.1%.
Pretty good history as a smaller bounce back stock.
On the short side the numbers are these
Pop % Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5
-12.0% -0.6% -1.0% -4.8% -5.2% -2.4%
-28.5% -0.2% 2.2% 2.2% -0.9% -0.2%
-16.3% -6.1% -5.7% -4.3% -0.1% 2.4%
-13.1% -21.7% -7.6% -2.4% -1.0% -2.4%
-14.8% -12.4% -3.4% -14.5% -17.2% -23.8%
-17.3% -4.3% -0.6% 11.4% 20.8% 33.0%
-12.2% -1.1% -0.6% -5.2% -14.7% -19.3%
This actually is the stronger side imo if a person can have a little patience.
Of those 7 majorDropper days, 6 reached a short side profit of at least 4.3%. The one that missed making a short side profit within the max 5 day hold period I look at, did not hurt the trader much, hitting a best hod of 2.2%, and at anytime within the 5 day hold the trader could have gotten out pretty close to even.
magician has an $8.00 target for TTN. I don't set a target like that, but I will agree that the short side is indicated as the way to go.
Hope the numbers presented here give you an idea of which way to go with TTN.
