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Tex

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Tex

Re: BlueDjinn post# 81434

Tuesday, 12/16/2008 8:25:26 PM

Tuesday, December 16, 2008 8:25:26 PM

Post# of 147304
re meaning

Dropping MWSF will leave the Developers' Conference as the major non-quarterly periodic news op, and shift more of the news spikes/plunges to things like unexpected product announcements and run-of-the-mill betting on the quarterly number.

The point about the need to think about a Jobsless Apple is real. My naked puts have a strike of 110 and expire a year from January, which until just recently I thought was pretty safe, given Apple's sales and profits trajectory. Based on the premium they now command, I find myself asking what it would take to do worse in a year from January than $80 a share. The fact pricing in so many things has gone bonkers prevents me from really feeling there's any way to have certainty about any price point, other than to say that at some point it's a sure long bet -- but after October, there's no way to believe things can't get worse from any other point, either.

Take care,
--Tex.
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