Snake,
I can't say I've been in pennies enough to be able to predict this with any degree of accuracy, but here's my OPINION:
-> The company had 35 million in booked orders before the whole Howard Stern/Viacom/Puddle Pals/marketing blitz news. Supposedly those aren't really accounted for in current guidance.
-> If PRs are accurate, we got 1 mil opening week from Stern, 3.2 mil in 10 days from recent marketing blitz, 2+ mil from Vegas Show. Viacom figures aren't even available yet, and my guess is, those would add 30-50 mil per year -- but I could be off here.
-> The Viacom deal also adds a big factor in the equation. If SPNG comes to a vendor saying "We got these new Puddle Pals (generic)/Pet/Car Wash sponges, would you like to try them out", the response is probably gonna be "Uh, we'll get back to you"... and they might -- in a few months or a year. However, if they come to a vendor with "We got this new Spongebob Sponge, we have a deal with Viacom/Nick, and these other sponges too, would you like to try them out"... that's instant credibility because of Viacom, so the response would probably be "Well why don't you send us a few and we'll try it out". Much better chances of shelf space, and if it sells well, the company can follow up with "Hey Spongebob sold well, why don't you try the other ones too". Much easier and faster.
-> Seems like 3rd and 4th quarters are the big ones for SPNG, based on the past (and breakdown of yearly guidance). If so, we add the extra revenues from recent deals and PRs, and I think that we could be doing about 60-70mil in FY09.
-> Now, assuming worse case scenario and full dilution, I'd say fair value might be 0.15->0.20 cents; assuming retiring of the RME shares through non-dilution means, and a O/S of 200 mil shares if that's the case, I'd say a fair value of probably 0.65->0.75 cents. Keep in mind this is simply off the top of my head, I did not take the time to calculate EPS/PE/etc.
This is getting pretty long, I'll do MOASS on a new post :)
