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Sunday, December 14, 2008 2:25:17 PM
This is where we stand with Drinks. Now c'mon, think about it. Kenny has put the plan in place for four years and did so with 100 mil OS. Now please. Do you really think he is preparing for the next 16 years with 400 mil more? Remember, you can only do OS raises at the annual meeting.
He is doing equity partnerships with icons. That involves warrants at $1.20 or $1.00 or whatever. It is much higher prices. Given what we have learned about these warrants thus far, there are no more warrants at 25 cents or 50 cents. This means Kenny is preparing for warrants that even at the very least woud be $1.00 per share. They will probably be higher, but for now let's just say they are $1.00. That means he is preparing for one, or two scenarios, and ONLY one or two scenarios. That is all it can be. Nothing else.
Scenario One is he is allowing for $400 million in warrants to be doled out. Those are performance warrants to these icons that are paid on the back end for sales milestones. Given the fact none of these icons are being given shares, then they have to EARN them in their own right by actively participating in the promotion and success of their own products. If they are 50-50 equity splits, then these performance warrants usually go out on a bonus basis at about 20% of the sales base. So, in order for them ALL to be used up,the company would have to do about $2 billion in sales.
Scenario Two is acquisition based warrant placements. Again, they are premium priced at no less than a dollar. This means they have $400 million to spend that based on Kenny's track record, could easily be for anything up to $400 mil a year in sales. $400 mil a year in sales at 40% gm, and roughly 22% np margin, then the company will be booking $88 mil a year in net profit off these purchases. Their cash flow will move well above 20 million and ALL of the products sitting in the pipeline will be released one on top of the other. That will easily move net profit abve $100 mil a year, and with no less than 20-28 active products on the shelf, would easily give the company a value of $2.5-$3.5 billion on the low end.
So, it takes money to make money. I fail to see the dilution factor here. In fact, when you take an action to create another positive action for the company, and that leads to increased sales and follow on increased profits, thenlisten to me now. There is no such thing as dilution. You hear me? There is no such thing as dilution.
In fact, when that filing popped up, if any beverage analysts had seen it and knew even 1/10 of this story, the stock should have tripled in 30 minutes. The ONLY reason somebody like Kenny would even make such a move is because he has something of such intense magnitude up his sleeve, it needs to be done now to accommodate it.
But, I already told you that. Bigger than coke in Coke.
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