good yahoo post, not mine, dipickle
Analytically, we are trading at a TTM P/E of about 12 ($.025)/(2M/809M). Let's assume that this is a good rule of thumb.
If our sales hit $50M based on TTM at the end of the 4th quarter 09 (May 31), then we can expect the following outcomes:
1. If SPNG O/S sits at 809M, then our metrics are at an EPS of $.012 ($10M)/809M or about $.15 fair value.
2. If SPNG O/S shrinks (buyback) at 50M/month, then EPS is $.02 and fair value is $.25 range.
3. If SPNG O/S shrinks thru the full RM buyback, or funding, or retirement, then EPS is $.067 and fair value is $.83.
The wild card in all of this is when do the counterfeit share holders (MM's) realize the possible outcomes?
As long as we are not diluted by the CFO any more, we force a covering by the counterfeiters. The real issue with each quarterly statement (10K) is to what extent does the CFO push the share reduction pace?
Mathematically it makes perfect sense to me why we are trading at these levels, because of the actions taken by the CFO earlier. SPNG chose to dilute for growth and it seems to be working to grow their company. The rest of us who are invested have been their lifeboat. The sucky thing about this is that the CFO has us by the balls...if he is a man of his words, then we are fine.
Scenario 1 does not really address the counterfeiters being forced into a corner quickly, they are allowed to escape with minimal losses...
Scenario 2 and 3 are really pressing the issue with them and cause a quick decision. I think based on the Nov 20th letter to the public that the warning to the counterfeiters by Jan 15th is stern. A squeeze will come.
Getting and preparing the SEC 13g's to show that the 809M are accounted for before Jan 15th, seals their fate.
