Re: Ariad and similar, early stage cancer compounds...
This is a late reply. However as a matter of strategy, I often will start small positions in companies that have scientifically interesting compounds in phase I. I've done so with Ariad, as well as ARQL. I find that the biotechs developing such compounds are often cheap, and since it is practically impossible to know how a drug will do in phase I... it's worth the small gamble.
But they have to be "scientifically" interesting. Don't ask me exactly what that means
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