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Wednesday, December 10, 2008 9:12:29 AM
Some interesting developments have occured in the last couple of weeks with respect to Gold, Forex, and T-bills. First, Gold went to backwardation for the first time ever in history starting Dec 2 which seems to confirm a potential short squeeze scenario, next US T-Bill turned negative, followed by a reversal of the inverse relationship of Gold to USD. All other non-precious metal commodities are showing small pressure or perhaps a breakout against the trendline. If the current scenario holds, then we should start to see some additional pressure in commodity pricing with gold in particular over the next few weeks.
In my previous post discussion, two scenarios are provided to take into account for the spot pricing vs dilution, which may be worth reading. All comments welcome.
Gold went to backwardation for the first time ever in history
http://www.kitco.com/ind/fekete/dec052008.html
Short squeeze on gold:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/cliffkule/2008/1125.html
Interest Rate on US T-Bills Turns Negative
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c0c68a98-c646-11dd-a741-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
"Gold remained higher even after the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six trading partners, reversed earlier losses. The index was little changed after earlier dropping as much as 0.5 percent. Bullion typically moves in the opposite direction to the dollar."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=an_gYq.TqqRk&refer=commodities
Live Spot prices
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Silver has developed in the last 7 days an upward trendline:
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp?c=silver&u=oz&submit1=Display+Chart&x=usd&r=7d
Non-Precious Metals seem to have a small break out from the trendline, however upward pressure isn't being shown yet, which may be due to excess inventories still available from before the collapse in commodity pricing from a few months ago:
Uranium:
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalprices/
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp?c=uranium&r=1y&r=1y
Nickel:
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp?c=nickel&u=lb&submit1=Display+Chart&x=usd&r=7d
Moly:
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp?c=molybdenum&u=lb&submit1=Display+Chart&x=usd&r=7d
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