Didn't see the piece on that, but it strikes me as a bit of a backwards way to get there...
Oil prices ARE down. If they stay down, and economic activity rebounds enough that cheap oil gets consumed in larger quantities, a lot of oil will need to get shipped... which would be good thing for the oil tankers, but not for dry goods shippers. But, with economic activity picking up... there would be a need for dry goods shipping to get manufactured products to markets that want them... but that assumes there is an ability to use "price - supply - push" as a tool to "force" tapped out consumers to buy products they don't think they can afford ?
Hey, I hope it works... but it would be a first ?
More likely, I think, that preference we have for cheap oil will result in a rebound in some discretionary transportation choices, but that may not be tied to more trips to the mall to spend money on dry goods from Europe or China...
A more rational argument might be that dry goods shipping isn't really down as much as was feared... so lower oil prices widen the gap between the demand for dry transport and the cost of providing it ? Otherwise you end up arguing that the best way to keep an engine going is to encourage it to stall... or you rely on your car choosing to accelerate by sucking your foot onto the gas pedal to make it happen... and try to explain that to the cop, when the physics really sort of require the opposite.
I agree that shipping of oil is likely to continue and even pick up, which is why I favored petroleum tankers in mine, also as rates are boosted by more tankers being used for low rent storage, too... but still don't see how oil prices coming down by 66%... proportionally accelerates demand for dry goods without other systemic impacts occurring first.
Decide if you think consumers are going to lead us out of this recession or not... and then yo might build on that concept... but I don't think you can forecast any upturn in consumption while ignoring that it has to have some source of leadership and a driving force enabling it. Tax cuts that are paired with government spending increases are suddenly declared to be only a really good idea, again?
AI
