Unless they have some surprises lurking I'd think you are right. The strangest thing about it seems to be that both the analysts and the management are having a hard time pinning down a reasonable number. The uncertainty seems to have analysts dropping their numbers by a fudge factor... while the management is still just standing in there and swinging away.
I'd focus DD on why the numbers are hard to pin down, and what that might say about the nature of the risks...
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