FOREX TRADERS

[Worn_Buffet]

e/j summary from a 4x T/A Guru.....

of course after reading this it should be quite obvious it dint come from ol' Worn's keyboard :0

Bull & Bear views

Released: Saturday, December 06, 2008

EUR/JPY

Weekly and Daily Charts Outlook

Bulls’ Point of View:

While the monthly long term outlook remains on the soft side (bearish undertone) with no vital sign(s) of major and immediate reversal, the short-duration periodic oscillation in the weekly component --- although still on hard down with a possibility of 1.0 to 1.5 more weeks of bearish activity, appears girded up for some intervening bullish counter play poised to act upon slight stimulus. If this is the case, watch the dismantling of its first series and nearby R2 resistance at 118.40s/118.50s. If 118.40/50s gets blasted, 122.40s/50s gets in line for a new resistance and should be able to parry and arrest further bullish assault. Otherwise, if the bears get pinned and abandon the 122.40 barriers, the immediate peripheral of 127.00 looks compelling for a major target. But notice that the barriers at 122.40/50 look formidably strong for a Weekly resistance unless some drastic influx of bullish fundamental data hits the wire and adds traction to the upswing and fling prices higher -- The bulls could therefore slip through the crack and rattle prices up to higher levels --- possibly storming the aforementioned 127.00s major barriers.

Bears’ Point of View:

Conversely, the nearby support seen at 117.30s are potential easy targets while the next pillars of supports stands close at 116.45/55/60/70s and could brace for yet another barrage of bearish onslaught if the hard down phase mentioned above of 1.0 or 1.5 weeks is yet to be exploited. At this junction (116.45/55/60/70s) and for the sake of the “longs,” it is hoped that the Euro Bulls are able to energize their base and fuel a reversal. If not, the exploitation of its next low territories (supports or overhangs) emerging at 116.08/13 and 114.60/70s guarding the major low side curvilinear envelope sweeping at 112.60s and or 111.30/40/50 or 60s, looms in the immediate horizon (if 116.45/55/60s aforementioned supports gets rolled over or violated.

Generally, putting our finger to the wind, the Daily chart pattern, although signs of bottoming now emerging in the 13-day cyclic grind and with hard up price action in placed [either bottoming out this Sunday (December 7th) on its 13th day or may have already seen its 13-day bottom last Friday and hard up price motion is now underway], the possibility of some bearish extended play until Monday, December 8th or early Tuesday, December 9th remains a possibility. You want to keep an eagle eye watch on any of these possibilities (price action) and get ahead and ride the wave (bullish push) as soon as it materializes or ride the skid if otherwise.

Moreover, for the Point of View of the Bulls on Daily (D1) Component:

First, see that 118.55/65/75 or thereabout nearby resistances gets dismantled. Last Friday toward the close of the market, the pair looks pretty firm but may succumb to some momentary correction (slight pullback of about 80 or 115 to 140 pips from its last Friday’s high of 118.70s) any time during the Asian and or European markets. But if not, and if the 118.65/75 nearby barriers is managed (broken), this could set another exploitation of next higher territory and 119.80/90s to 120.10/15 or thereabout are the likely nest up target objectives. Moreover, the possibility of the re-birthing of the 13 or 14-day cycle should be anticipated as the price action from this component within the frame of two to three days could toss prices even higher and bump the 120.60s and 122.40/50s next walls of resistances. Extended bullish play (a total of around 4 to 5 days of buoyancy) could also materialize and the pair could rip through the above mentioned 122.50s resistance and the upper ceiling bounds of 125.50s and or 127.20/30s or thereabout looks pretty compelling for an ideal dream high.

A quick peek at the H4 component in the Asian Market opening:

After maybe one more bar of sustained firmness with guarded optimism, consider the possibility of prices back pedaling on a short stroke (few bars of around 2.0 or 2.5) to be followed immediately by a reversal (up tick). The downward price action is seen to cover a magnitude of around 120 to 140 pips on the minimum (high probability) or 245/250 to 285 pips on the maximum (average to low probability).
On the other hand, if resiliency persists (bullish price action continues working past 118.50 initial barrier), it is seen to remain hard up to complete a total “up run” of around 4.0, 5.0 or 6.0 bars for a swing at 119.80s.