The smartest guy on CNBC, and the most honest too IMO(Rick Santelli) believes that the key to spotting the bottom/turn in this market is the USD.
I've mentioned the very same thing myself quite a few times in not so many words when I said that stocks and commodities are where you'll want to be when the dollar plunges/turns down.
In the chart below it seems to me that the acceleration to the upside is at least beginning to slow as the resistance points are getting closer together and the stochastics are not showing as strong of tops and smaller breakouts beyond resistance levels.
I also think that now that it's official that we've been in recession for a full year (DUH!), that people are already comparing the length and depth of this recession to all the previous ones and thinking we're halfway or better through this mess. Right or wrong, that's the new thinking spreading around.
There's also talk of a bubble in bonds and that the dropping yields are unsustainable now that they're trading at levels not since since the early 1950's.
Santelli mentioned that this is a very unique situation and if the Fed begins buying bonds/treasuries as they've said they could do (and may already be doing according to Santelli) that the yields could go lower still.
But the key here is the USD according to Santelli and I agree. It's the one thing that umbrellas all other things, from gold to stocks to treasuries, to inflation/deflation.
That's what I'll be watching as I search for the bottom.
By the way! Speaking of the devaluation of the USD and inflation...it's been devaluing for the last 6 yrs since just after 9/11 of 2001. And inflation has been rampant since then until just recently. 2001 was the time to buy gold/silver.
CHART BELOW.....
I've mentioned the very same thing myself quite a few times in not so many words when I said that stocks and commodities are where you'll want to be when the dollar plunges/turns down.
In the chart below it seems to me that the acceleration to the upside is at least beginning to slow as the resistance points are getting closer together and the stochastics are not showing as strong of tops and smaller breakouts beyond resistance levels.
I also think that now that it's official that we've been in recession for a full year (DUH!), that people are already comparing the length and depth of this recession to all the previous ones and thinking we're halfway or better through this mess. Right or wrong, that's the new thinking spreading around.
There's also talk of a bubble in bonds and that the dropping yields are unsustainable now that they're trading at levels not since since the early 1950's.
Santelli mentioned that this is a very unique situation and if the Fed begins buying bonds/treasuries as they've said they could do (and may already be doing according to Santelli) that the yields could go lower still.
But the key here is the USD according to Santelli and I agree. It's the one thing that umbrellas all other things, from gold to stocks to treasuries, to inflation/deflation.
That's what I'll be watching as I search for the bottom.
By the way! Speaking of the devaluation of the USD and inflation...it's been devaluing for the last 6 yrs since just after 9/11 of 2001. And inflation has been rampant since then until just recently. 2001 was the time to buy gold/silver.
CHART BELOW.....
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