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Re: crable post# 1908

Saturday, 11/29/2008 12:25:40 AM

Saturday, November 29, 2008 12:25:40 AM

Post# of 10237
crable

FEED should do the Wykoff Spring and go to about 5 in a hurry.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/05/wyckoff_spring.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FEED&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77678768826

I have a friend who is an analyst for a fund. He specializes in individual stocks in Eastern Europe, Russia, and China. He does love FEED. Here is what he sent me a month ago.

Here is my take on China, it has $1.8 trillion USD equivalent reserves, about 1/3-1/2 of that in US treasuries. They are beginning to diversify that asset pool further, into euro denominated securities, and cash. They also have the capability of dropping their interest rates. Also while numerous pundits are hollering stay out of China, that it is "crashing," this needs to be clarified. The Chinese are dropping from a 10.6% GDP growth rate to perhaps a 4.0% GDP growth rate, while the US is going to experience a recession. China also has a higher interest rate, and about a 17% reserves requirement on its banks to prevent the economy from overheating. It can lower those rates and reserves and stimulate internal trade and spending. Also, while it is argued China is frail and in trouble if the US economy goes down, major firms such as Merrill, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley up until last month were investing as much as $500 million in Chinese ventures that I am aware of, from pig farming, to manganese production. So the small investor is told get out while the institutionals move in. That is not to say that China will be trouble free, it will go though economic pain. However if you looked at a govt. balance sheet and considered where you would want to invest: which looks healither? The US with $10 trillion in debt, or China which has experienced a slowdown, has begun to bring inflation under control, and with $1.8 trillion in reserves to help deal with it and create employment and economic stimulus for its population?

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