Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[sgolds]

mas, in the time I've been following AMD closely (since 1999) I've seen lots of optimistic posts such as yours - the common thread always is that the current good situation has to last for at least another year, maybe longer, even if AMD has delays.

Hasn't worked that way even once in that time.

This is a dynamic market and standing still is death.

At this particular time, AMD must push its product advantage through increased manufacturing on 90nm. Otherwise, by the end of the year we will be waist deep in Intel rumors about how the Dothan-derivative CPUs are coming with 64-bit and dual cores (this has already started at a low level). Intel can easily bridge a 6 to 12 month product gap through marketing: Incentives to keep OEM customers on board, keep AMD out (or at the very least in the consumer lines only), etc. Comarketing dollars. Rebates. Special deals. Intel-only specs by governments and businesses.

The simple truth is that if AMD does not have volume 90nm product this year then the opportunity is gone, and when AMD does have manufacturing ready the customers will be gone also.

It wouldn't be the first time. Ruiz is well aware of this and I'm sure he is moving Heaven and earth to deliver product in volume this year.

With all due respect, you shouldn't be invested in AMD if you think that AMD has an untouchable advantage with current manufacturing over the next year. You are investing with wishful thinking rather than with facts.