AI
Monday, November 24, 2008 7:19:01 PM
wave1or2 MajorMoves Comments for 11/24 by Chi2
Nov 27 is Thanksgiving Day in the USA, Full day 26, ½ day 28.
The Trading Mice tend to play on Wednesday and Friday. Warning is all I can do.
http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/xcal/xcal2008.pdf
All CHARTs in this Document are Updated every time you Open this Document or a URL.
===================================================================
My close board friend, Bob3, and I have been together on several boards for nearly 10 years now.
He has been sick for a long time now, and does not feel healthy enough to keep posting or trading, so he has retired. I consider Bob my best of friends, although we did not always agree on all the personal things of life, we had common minds on what we considered important, in our common endeavor. A truly great work mate and contributor..
We have a particularly "Rich" group of posts over the last day + by George and Godnwv. I also want to re-welcome Myself °¿°, to some of our new people on our board, all those of some tenure will of course know him. I suggest you review the board. There is too many good posts for me to add them all to this memo or the email. And I could not pick just 2 or 3 of them, it would not be fair..
===================================================================
WHERE ARE WE, TONIGHT ?
TODAY was/is a Good Day
All the General Market Indices confirmed they are in a Wave after Large Wave 5, this Wave is either Wave 1 Up or after that in Wave 2 Dn. After these comes Wave 3 Up. If Wave 3 Up is normal it will be about 1.3x Wave 1.
You may wish to review the most recent Amateur Investors regard its take on where we are
AmateurInvestors: Weekend Market Analysis Nov_22_08
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Nov_22_08.htm
Tonight's lead charts are 60min Interval charts, annotated as described.
4 charts $INDU, SPY, $SPX, QQQQ
Right now I can not get the StockCharts to work for me to annotate my other charts, and I can not add to any charts or make new annotated charts. So these are best there will be. The good news there are many charts that do not need additional annotation.
****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ******
$SPX Trends and Cycles Chart
Large Wave 5 is completed, and possibly a new Wave 1 is completed, and $SPX has just started the followon, Wave 2 Dn, then comes Wave 3 Up..
====================================================================
A CLOSE-UP of TODAY continued
TODAY, Eleven (11) of Eleven General Indices made MajorMoves, All Up. 4% to 7%Up.
And All Eleven (11) had New 2008 Intra-Day LOWS. Yes, that is correct.
Up 7% IWM, MID; Up 6% $SPX, SPY, QQQQ, NAS, NDX, $OEX;
Up 5% $XII; Up 4% $INDU, DIA.
Click URL for charts
INDU,DIA,SPX,SPY,OEX,MID,IWM,NAS,NDX,QQQQ,XII See Daily 3 month Charts.
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32652781
.
====================================================================
Nine (9) of Nine MAJOR SECTORS made MajorMoves All Up. From 1% to 15%
Up 15% Financials; Up 7% Consumer Discretionary, Energy; Up 5% Materials, Industrials;
Up 4% Technology; Up 1% Consumer Staple, Health Care, Utilities.
See Writeup and Sector Charts (10min 2 Day and Daily 3 Month Charts, side_by_side)
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32608190
====================================================================
My charts show Bank and related Financial Enterprises, started seriously Down in September. After they learned that TARP would NOT buy Bad Mortgages, as was stated in Legislature for TARP Approval. Big news for C , added big big %'s moves for Banks
****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ******
Major Bank Index ($BKX) and Regional Bank Index (KRE)
Federal Capital Regional Banks= announced in Treasury Program 10/29/08
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33182931
Federal Capital Commercial Banks: WFC,BAC,C,JPM,GS,MS,SST,BK
All Enterprises below had Major Moves: All Massive Up moves, Lead by C Up over 50%.
WFC,WB,BAC,MER,C,JPM,GS,MS,SST,BK See Daily 3 Month Charts.
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32885960
====================================================================
** US Dollar if US Dollar starts Continuous Dn Trend, it is a sign Deleveraging is over.
====================================================================
====================================================================
It will take Mucho Time to Recover. Still have More Years of Recession to Come.
Be Very careful Trading in Here.
DEFLATION is the Fight. Maintain a Protective Coat, Two plus Years to overcome. .
Do not read this if you can not handle DISMAL. by Nouriel Roubini posted by George.
The Deadly Dirty D-Words: "Deflation", "Debt Deflation" and "Defaults".
And How Central Banks Will Have to Resort to "Crazy" Policies as We Have Reached Such Bermuda Triangle of a "Liquidity Trap" - Nov 21, 2008
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254515/the_deadly_dirty_d-words__deflation_debt_deflation_and_defaults__and_how_central_banks_will_have_to_resort_to_crazy_policies_as_we_have_reached_such_bermuda_triangle_of_a_liquidity_trap
Bloomberg Editor's Video Picks Be sure Each Day to OPEN this, and read TITLES.
Http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/
Regard McClellan Charts Oscillators moved Up today. Summations begin Turning.
McClellan Charts are in the Later Section.
Where to Next?
I said here Friday, Seems good to remember for Mondays after Expiration Days --
"Very Tough to determine, I will not attempt to guess at Monday. But Mondays after Expiration Days tend to start out going in the same direction as Expiration Days."
For today, we probably started Wave 2 Down. If not, we are still in Wave 1.
For Generality, Wave 2s are not usually more than 100% of Wave 1. When Wave 2 is complete, Wave 3 Up will start, they tend to be larger than Wave 1.
Do not get in, if you can not handle it.
Why Own Gold? By Blanchard, 11/24 posted by Godnwv
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33731867
Be Wary of short term Up plays -- in this market they are even tough plays for Pros, some luck.
Be Good, do not play with Luck only you will lose, Chichi2
In psychoanalysis, the PSYCHE refers to the forces in an individual that influence thought, behavior and personality.
Footnote (1) Democracy in America 1835 Vol I, 1840 Vol II by Alexis de Tocqueville
Http://xroads.virginia.edu/~Hyper/DETOC/toc_indx.html
**************************************************************************
You need read no further, unless you seek more detail or charts.
You will need to Click URLs to see most Charts.
The Charts in the following Sections, First cover in Detail this Day's Action.
Then later toward the last Section, the Charts looks backwards for predicting Forward.
===============================================================
Volume - Watch 50 simple moving average.
(see chart above for confirmation of overall Total NYSE volumes, and this URL showing Yahoos NYSE composite volume) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETV.N
Yahoo problem report is open on why NYSE Volumes do not correlate with their Up Dn Volumes. They promised an Ans by end of this week.
** Advances & Declines and related Volumes.
Yahoo agrees with me that their Volume data is in error, I include the feed but not any additional summary of it, as that implies some correctness which we are not sure of. Yahoo can not give me an assurance when or if they have manpower to correct it .
Click on URL, then Scroll Down ½ Page to see them.
Http://finance.yahoo.com/advances?u
***********************************************************************
CHARTS of several McCLELLAN OSCILLATORS and SUMMATION Charts
McClellan Charts are based on Advances and Declines. We track their Oscillators (a combining of the Advances and Declines) and their Cumulatives which are called Summations.
These moves give us intelligence on the Moves of General Indices.
Oscillators moved Up to Zerolines today. Summations still Down but Turning upward.
See my Charts.
Below are Decision Point --
McClellan Oscillators and Summation Charts
NASDAQ
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html
NYSE
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
Below are Chichi2 annotated --
McClellan Oscillators and Summation Charts
***********************************************************************
** General Market Indices had Major Moves. See 10min Interval Charts
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32592605
** General Sectors: See 10min Interval Charts
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32598682
** US Government Placed Capital in BAC,JPM,WFC,C,GS,MS,MER,STT,BK,BCS
** FOREIGN Governments Placed Capital in BCS,CS,DB see 10min Interval Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32849538
** Markets includes General, Crude, Gold, CRB, and US Dollar
see headings http://www.ino.com/
** Metals (pick your poison) http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
See Metals Indices and Metals Stocks Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32573741
** US Dollar
** Bonds Prices Rise, as Rates drop. See RateCharts
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32563220
Volatility Indicators
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33100319
====================================================
Below are Extras. Followed by Chart URLs.
====================================================
How Good are Professional Market/Stock Forecasters Forecasts? posted by George updated 11/22
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33769027
====================================================
Education: More on Sector Trading. My Trading Platform as do many Trading Platforms has "Sectors and Stocks in a Tree Structure". Many times during the day I go there, See Sectors, it shows me the % Gains or % Losses of each Sector. I click on the Sector I am interested in, it then shows me the stocks in that Sector, I can see each of their Tickers and again their % gain or % loss. I can then pick which Stock I am interested in. And so on.
Sector Trading is Good, starting point.
=====================================================
Bill McLaren 11/21 comments on $SPX charts
posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33721431
Video (8½ min) Michael Aronstein Says Stock Market Has Reached Its Lows:
Michael is commenting on the Friday close of October 10, 2008
Http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoqV73coXuyM
A LONGER RANGE PERSPECTIVE= "InstitutionalIndex"(XII), then_INDU,SPX,OEX,NAS,NDX with some Troughs and Peaks marked
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32803038
LONGEST RANGE PERSPECTIVES INDU,SPX,OEX,NDX with 1987
10/27 was Recent Bottom, Retracement (10/28) was to Top of 1987 Blue Line channel marked
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32803081
============================================================
When Wave 5 is Completed, it Should answer Carl's Quest, quoteth the Psyche..
Bottom or Continuation Pattern? by Carl Swenlin - 11/07 posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33427296
===================================================
Nov 27 is Thanksgiving Day in the USA, Full day 26, ½ day 28.
The Trading Mice tend to play on Wednesday and Friday. Warning is all I can do.
http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/xcal/xcal2008.pdf
All CHARTs in this Document are Updated every time you Open this Document or a URL.
===================================================================
My close board friend, Bob3, and I have been together on several boards for nearly 10 years now.
He has been sick for a long time now, and does not feel healthy enough to keep posting or trading, so he has retired. I consider Bob my best of friends, although we did not always agree on all the personal things of life, we had common minds on what we considered important, in our common endeavor. A truly great work mate and contributor..
We have a particularly "Rich" group of posts over the last day + by George and Godnwv. I also want to re-welcome Myself °¿°, to some of our new people on our board, all those of some tenure will of course know him. I suggest you review the board. There is too many good posts for me to add them all to this memo or the email. And I could not pick just 2 or 3 of them, it would not be fair..
===================================================================
WHERE ARE WE, TONIGHT ?
TODAY was/is a Good Day
All the General Market Indices confirmed they are in a Wave after Large Wave 5, this Wave is either Wave 1 Up or after that in Wave 2 Dn. After these comes Wave 3 Up. If Wave 3 Up is normal it will be about 1.3x Wave 1.
You may wish to review the most recent Amateur Investors regard its take on where we are
AmateurInvestors: Weekend Market Analysis Nov_22_08
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Nov_22_08.htm
Tonight's lead charts are 60min Interval charts, annotated as described.
4 charts $INDU, SPY, $SPX, QQQQ
Right now I can not get the StockCharts to work for me to annotate my other charts, and I can not add to any charts or make new annotated charts. So these are best there will be. The good news there are many charts that do not need additional annotation.
****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ******
$SPX Trends and Cycles Chart
Large Wave 5 is completed, and possibly a new Wave 1 is completed, and $SPX has just started the followon, Wave 2 Dn, then comes Wave 3 Up..
====================================================================
A CLOSE-UP of TODAY continued
TODAY, Eleven (11) of Eleven General Indices made MajorMoves, All Up. 4% to 7%Up.
And All Eleven (11) had New 2008 Intra-Day LOWS. Yes, that is correct.
Up 7% IWM, MID; Up 6% $SPX, SPY, QQQQ, NAS, NDX, $OEX;
Up 5% $XII; Up 4% $INDU, DIA.
Click URL for charts
INDU,DIA,SPX,SPY,OEX,MID,IWM,NAS,NDX,QQQQ,XII See Daily 3 month Charts.
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32652781
.
====================================================================
Nine (9) of Nine MAJOR SECTORS made MajorMoves All Up. From 1% to 15%
Up 15% Financials; Up 7% Consumer Discretionary, Energy; Up 5% Materials, Industrials;
Up 4% Technology; Up 1% Consumer Staple, Health Care, Utilities.
See Writeup and Sector Charts (10min 2 Day and Daily 3 Month Charts, side_by_side)
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32608190
====================================================================
My charts show Bank and related Financial Enterprises, started seriously Down in September. After they learned that TARP would NOT buy Bad Mortgages, as was stated in Legislature for TARP Approval. Big news for C , added big big %'s moves for Banks
****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ******
Major Bank Index ($BKX) and Regional Bank Index (KRE)
Federal Capital Regional Banks= announced in Treasury Program 10/29/08
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33182931
Federal Capital Commercial Banks: WFC,BAC,C,JPM,GS,MS,SST,BK
All Enterprises below had Major Moves: All Massive Up moves, Lead by C Up over 50%.
WFC,WB,BAC,MER,C,JPM,GS,MS,SST,BK See Daily 3 Month Charts.
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32885960
====================================================================
** US Dollar if US Dollar starts Continuous Dn Trend, it is a sign Deleveraging is over.
====================================================================
====================================================================
It will take Mucho Time to Recover. Still have More Years of Recession to Come.
Be Very careful Trading in Here.
DEFLATION is the Fight. Maintain a Protective Coat, Two plus Years to overcome. .
Do not read this if you can not handle DISMAL. by Nouriel Roubini posted by George.
The Deadly Dirty D-Words: "Deflation", "Debt Deflation" and "Defaults".
And How Central Banks Will Have to Resort to "Crazy" Policies as We Have Reached Such Bermuda Triangle of a "Liquidity Trap" - Nov 21, 2008
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254515/the_deadly_dirty_d-words__deflation_debt_deflation_and_defaults__and_how_central_banks_will_have_to_resort_to_crazy_policies_as_we_have_reached_such_bermuda_triangle_of_a_liquidity_trap
Bloomberg Editor's Video Picks Be sure Each Day to OPEN this, and read TITLES.
Http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/
Regard McClellan Charts Oscillators moved Up today. Summations begin Turning.
McClellan Charts are in the Later Section.
Where to Next?
I said here Friday, Seems good to remember for Mondays after Expiration Days --
"Very Tough to determine, I will not attempt to guess at Monday. But Mondays after Expiration Days tend to start out going in the same direction as Expiration Days."
For today, we probably started Wave 2 Down. If not, we are still in Wave 1.
For Generality, Wave 2s are not usually more than 100% of Wave 1. When Wave 2 is complete, Wave 3 Up will start, they tend to be larger than Wave 1.
Do not get in, if you can not handle it.
Why Own Gold? By Blanchard, 11/24 posted by Godnwv
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33731867
Be Wary of short term Up plays -- in this market they are even tough plays for Pros, some luck.
Be Good, do not play with Luck only you will lose, Chichi2
In psychoanalysis, the PSYCHE refers to the forces in an individual that influence thought, behavior and personality.
Footnote (1) Democracy in America 1835 Vol I, 1840 Vol II by Alexis de Tocqueville
Http://xroads.virginia.edu/~Hyper/DETOC/toc_indx.html
**************************************************************************
You need read no further, unless you seek more detail or charts.
You will need to Click URLs to see most Charts.
The Charts in the following Sections, First cover in Detail this Day's Action.
Then later toward the last Section, the Charts looks backwards for predicting Forward.
===============================================================
Volume - Watch 50 simple moving average.
(see chart above for confirmation of overall Total NYSE volumes, and this URL showing Yahoos NYSE composite volume) http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETV.N
Yahoo problem report is open on why NYSE Volumes do not correlate with their Up Dn Volumes. They promised an Ans by end of this week.
** Advances & Declines and related Volumes.
Yahoo agrees with me that their Volume data is in error, I include the feed but not any additional summary of it, as that implies some correctness which we are not sure of. Yahoo can not give me an assurance when or if they have manpower to correct it .
Click on URL, then Scroll Down ½ Page to see them.
Http://finance.yahoo.com/advances?u
***********************************************************************
CHARTS of several McCLELLAN OSCILLATORS and SUMMATION Charts
McClellan Charts are based on Advances and Declines. We track their Oscillators (a combining of the Advances and Declines) and their Cumulatives which are called Summations.
These moves give us intelligence on the Moves of General Indices.
Oscillators moved Up to Zerolines today. Summations still Down but Turning upward.
See my Charts.
Below are Decision Point --
McClellan Oscillators and Summation Charts
NASDAQ
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html
NYSE
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
Below are Chichi2 annotated --
McClellan Oscillators and Summation Charts
***********************************************************************
** General Market Indices had Major Moves. See 10min Interval Charts
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32592605
** General Sectors: See 10min Interval Charts
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32598682
** US Government Placed Capital in BAC,JPM,WFC,C,GS,MS,MER,STT,BK,BCS
** FOREIGN Governments Placed Capital in BCS,CS,DB see 10min Interval Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32849538
** Markets includes General, Crude, Gold, CRB, and US Dollar
see headings http://www.ino.com/
** Metals (pick your poison) http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
See Metals Indices and Metals Stocks Charts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32573741
** US Dollar
** Bonds Prices Rise, as Rates drop. See RateCharts
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32563220
Volatility Indicators
---------- 2008 Records ----------See Charts.
Closing VIX 80.06 VXO 85.99 VXN 82.39
Intra-day VIX 89.13 VXO 103.41 VXN 86.52
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33100319
====================================================
Below are Extras. Followed by Chart URLs.
====================================================
How Good are Professional Market/Stock Forecasters Forecasts? posted by George updated 11/22
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33769027
====================================================
Education: More on Sector Trading. My Trading Platform as do many Trading Platforms has "Sectors and Stocks in a Tree Structure". Many times during the day I go there, See Sectors, it shows me the % Gains or % Losses of each Sector. I click on the Sector I am interested in, it then shows me the stocks in that Sector, I can see each of their Tickers and again their % gain or % loss. I can then pick which Stock I am interested in. And so on.
Sector Trading is Good, starting point.
=====================================================
Bill McLaren 11/21 comments on $SPX charts
posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33721431
Video (8½ min) Michael Aronstein Says Stock Market Has Reached Its Lows:
Michael is commenting on the Friday close of October 10, 2008
Http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoqV73coXuyM
A LONGER RANGE PERSPECTIVE= "InstitutionalIndex"(XII), then_INDU,SPX,OEX,NAS,NDX with some Troughs and Peaks marked
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32803038
LONGEST RANGE PERSPECTIVES INDU,SPX,OEX,NDX with 1987
10/27 was Recent Bottom, Retracement (10/28) was to Top of 1987 Blue Line channel marked
Http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32803081
============================================================
When Wave 5 is Completed, it Should answer Carl's Quest, quoteth the Psyche..
Bottom or Continuation Pattern? by Carl Swenlin - 11/07 posted by George
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33427296
===================================================
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