As a start, I think, the known lowish $0.30 a share for SRSR is as a "proven asset value" based number... and we have yet to prove it... but are right on track to do so on the planned time lines.
From there, you need to look at broad market based factors to determine any probabilities. We ARE in a pretty ugly market now, which is good, so metrics, as others have pointed out are hard to generate... but market performance comparisons based on reasonable asset values maybe are not so hard to find.
The base line target, for value in resource stocks, is always 10% of asset value, with variation from that depending on expectations in how long they might take to get in production or be sold, variation depending on the direction in the change of market prices of the underlying commodities that form the assets, and longer range future price expectations tied to values anticipated when production might begin, variation depending on the cost of mining, transportation costs, ease of access to develop the property, variation depending on expectations in the potential to expand the scope of the resource, etc.
Also, always issues with popularity, cycles in the market, the sector, the stock... depending on the "glamor factor," performance, rate of change in value in the past, "random" bits of bias in media coverage, management of PR and marketing, etc. Always remember... cubic zirconia are rare, diamonds are ten times more common than cubic zirconia... and worth a lot more... because ? Anyone betting that relationship will change anytime soon, so snapping up all the "hot" cubic zirconia mining shares? Which doesn't mean PGMs aren't worth way more now than they used to be... if only because of industrial demand vs. other sources of preciousness?
A worst case sort of value, seen in the worst of the market for resource stocks lately, has been reached when there is a discount applied to the discounted value of the proven assets, of as much as 90%. When shares are selling for not 10% but 1% of the proven asset value... and when people wake up and realize that... those shares have been a SCREAMING buy... and they pretty quickly begin to retrace a large part of that discount, one third to a half quickly, to get them back closer to then current market sector comparable discounts.
That still leaves the largest appreciation potential in shares occurring in stages, as they go from "doing nothing" to "exploring", from "not having a resource" while they are exploring, to "having a very large and valuable one that is in demand." Value changes in steps as the resource is being discovered, defined, quantified, qualified, expanded, and as it is being developed, placed into production, or worked out and retired. Value depends, in part, on the rate at which those changes can be expected to occur...
In SRSR, even the bashers know we are drilling and we ARE going to define a resource in a fairly well defined time frame... moving along at a good pace, now... management proving they are doing what they said, and discrediting the critics, but not even the pumpers know when we are likely going to be signing a JV or otherwise financing additional expansion and development... and what you think about that depends on what you know about and think about the capabilities of management, and what they are telling you to expect... if they are telling you anything. If they are not talking... you'll need to form you own expectations, and value their ability rather than their words.
A lot of the forward looking questions now are about the likely pace AFTER the resource is proven up... with a faster pace, more rapid and transformational price changes will occur. But, that is skipping ahead over the unknown: What IS the value in what current events will prove ? WE DON'T KNOW... We don't know. Can't determine ANY of the rest without that answer... so don't worry about it now, and don't let others encourage you to get to thinking too far ahead of where we are. Enjoy the moment...
If the 600 foot deep hole we know of is as deep as it gets... and the samples we got happened to be lucky picks... there may be less here than we expect. Prior studies, given the source, likely bias the expectation properly. But, maybe ALL those holes they drilled hit deep spots, and the resource is only 6" deep between them... and their lab screwed up the assays. Recent sampling suggests they were right, and it is improbable the resource is smaller than expected. Not likely... but, we'll triple check, and then, even with tight hole spacing, you are still sort of guessing what is between the holes... until you dig it out. More holes and more consistent results give you more statistically valid guesses... and when you are statistically valid enough in your guesses, you can be compliant. If the new effort finds there are still minerals at the limit of the depths it can drill... silly quibbles about timing on the audited financial statements will clearly be seen as silly... as value grows rapidly without them. So, there is a lot to be excited about, short term... and you need to see what happens there, to condition expectation after...
For SRSR, I think that should mean, when the resource IS proven, say, as $0.30 a share, that at $0.03 a share, it is a HUGE SCREAMING BUY... maybe up to at least $0.10 or $0.20... where it is then just a really really good value. If there is more... those numbers will go up. It is hard to say what the actual change will look like if/when the momo crowd decides to play it hard... if resource stocks and SRSR are fashionable... the markets are moving up, steel production is rising, niobium prices are spiking, etc., or not: If the market tanks and the DOW drops to 3500 ? No one will care, much.
Silver stocks generally don't go up on days when silver goes down... but, when silver goes down, and a silver stock announces they just expanded their resource based by 10X... they may buck the trend... but not as much as they might if silver was strong and going up like we just ran out of it... Stock market trading dynamics may matter more than underlying valuation issues...
A lot depends on larger market dynamics, not to determine relative underlying value, but the price incentives in the rate and direction of change. In trading in the January to March quarter, having a proven $0.30 a share value... a lot will still depend on how the rest of the market is doing. If it looks like we are entering the Greater Depression, with commodities prices in total free fall, and the Brazillians are giving niobium away just to keep the miners employed and not rioting while paying them with government subsidies... you might think about holding for another year or more before seeing $0.30 ? If we are in fact already seeing signs of a turn in the markets, anticipating a better economy six months from now... pairing a return in normal demand with recession fighting accelerations in Chinese infrastructure spending that will be supporting steel production ??? If the Brazillians suddenly run out of niobium... or close their mines due to a war with Venezuela, or a meteor impact at the mine site, the price will go up ?? For that matter, if prices drop, and the workers riot and shut the mines down... supply diversification needs will put SRSR on the map. What if it forever... Nothing like any of that is ever going to happen, until it does...
You need to build a matrix of all the factors and probabilities, note they are interactive, note the time in which they are likely to occur... and decide when they will have cumulative effects as accelerators or decelerators.
It isn't all random... the company actions and investors responses to the company actions, controls some of the result. Stay on pace or accelerate... price goes up. Fall behind announced time lines... price goes down. Investors expectations matter... which is why you see people here trying to manipulate them. Build up fear from "expectations that aren't being met" like some here do... and some may have unreasonable fears on seeing that false negative and sell ? Build up unsupported expectations of 50 googaquadrizillions from a resource that is 70% niobium that extends to China (thus reducing shipping costs), and some will be tempted by greed to buy high and run prices higher than they should. Most of that fear and greed mongering ends up being reflected as a little higher volatility influencing short term prices, but not defining directions in the trends. More noise is generally good, for some, as it might encourage more trading volume, which makes $$$ for market makers. It might be controlling, when there are no real fundamentals to control direction... making some long term efforts to sustain direction, movement and volume useful, but, it will not often control more than short range trading when real events do, and it is unlikely to influence long term values when real events are imposing change.
I think most people usually don't understand how wide the RANGE of variation within "normal" valuation can be... as perception is based on short range awareness of relative position, and on false expectations of meaning in the range of motion. I often see people who buy at three cents, sell at two or five, who think they've been screwed by the MMs or made a killing... when normal market drift given random external factors, for shares like SRSR, can range from $0.001 to maybe $0.25... based on nothing fundamental in difference but... ??? fad, trends, expectations and emotions... all of which change A LOT without being at all fundamental. What is unusual about the current market is only that you see the ENTIRE market now being subjected to forced awareness of that FACT about normal ranges in market pricing as demand changes and emotions matter more than fundamentals.
Think of time as place: you already know that a beer at the lake resort costs more than same beer bought on sale at the discount grocery. Do you want to wait to buy it there, or stock up at the sale before making he trip ? Stocks are no different than beer, except for how emotional people get about them... refusing to buy them when they are on sale, because they have no value, spending freely at the resort bar. Both are OK for the entertainment choices... but, if you are in the beer business, you better buy on sale and sell at the lake instead of drinking. Prices are not ever perfect reflections of past, present or future values... a lot of which are PURE thoughtless market function based on convenience... not about anything but what people think, Want and FEEL... most of which is FAR MORE about group think than shifting sands based on fear or greed... which are really more about the behavior at the extremes in the range, than the width of the normal band.
SRSR could trade between $0.03 and $0.30 without much real reason in the next year, save for changes in how people feel about things generally... but, we will agree to pretend that its value is all and only a function directly tied to our rational expectations... which is what your question was... about the change over time in what we should expect... ???
We ARE clearly nearing an extreme in pessimism now... but, no one really knows the future, so no one really knows how rational or irrational the fear is, or how it will look in hindsight. We all fear we may be entering a depression, and maybe that fear will be realized, or maybe not. I think Warren Buffet jumped the gun a little... and bought things he shouldn't, but, so what... at least his choices may be a useful indicator of which city the ball park we are playing in is closest to ??? Relax... enjoy the game... do a little DD, a little light reading of tea leaves on the charts, and learn to ignore the fear mongers and pollyannas... so that they don't influence your emotions... but not so much that you ignore their influences on others, or their reasons for doing what they are. There is never a reason to fight over something that doesn't have some value... so, the only real questions that matter are about relative position in the wide range of normalcy... and how position in it, and the width of that range, are likely to change as the environment does.
The best case, here, is to buy at or near the bottom of the stock market price cycle, the bottom of the specific share price cycle, at the bottom of the economic cycle, at the bottom of the commodities price cycle... and then have all of those things change direction... while the company succeeds exactly as planned... and exactly as they or we expect...
I think that quadruple bottom is where we were when I called a soft bottom here at $0.008 and started buying. I think those predicting $0.30 a share by January are not irrational... as by then we have a proven value of $0.30, and a vastly different mood than that which pervades the room now. By January, $0.30 might look cheap... but, it won't... if the mood doesn't change. A little soft music maestro, if you please... Want a beer ?
