Friday, November 14, 2008 2:10:42 AM
This is from the company's website:
Over the long term, if the Winning Brand Corporation establishes itself as a brand portfolio in the international markets that WBC is targeting, then it may be possible at a P/E Ratio of 25:1 to achieve share price targets of U.S. $2.50 per share for every $100 Million in sales. This assumes that the issued and outstanding share count is 250 Million, (which would require a consolidation from the current number of shares outstanding) and that the company is profitable with planned structures are in place. A variation of the formula that has been applied to these variables may be necessary from time to time to accommodate adjusted factors. Therefore, if the company succeeds, then there is substantial upward potential for the shares from the current start-up trading range. This is highly speculative however and does not constitute professional investment advice. Winning Brands Corporation management encourages prospective share purchasers to use conservative prudence in assessing personal risk tolerance. The firm does not wish to cause persons to experience capital loses through unrealistic expectations or due to factors beyond the company's control
So, instead of 250 mil, we will use 700 million, which is about the number of outstanding shares right now, because they haven't bought back any shares...yet.
So, the way they are calculating share price in the above paragraph is taking 1/4 the total sales of 100,000,000, which is 25,000,0000, and dividing 25 million by 250 million, this gives you a price per share of 0.1. They then multiply that by a 25 Price/earning ratio, which gives them the $2.50 share price. I think a 25 pe ratio is a bit on the high side, especially for a non-tech company, but it is possible.
Why do they use 25 million instead of the 100 million in revenue? They are expecting to profit 25 million for every 100 million in sales.
Anyway, lets use the numbers we have now.
take 70,007,000 and divide that by 4, you get 17,501,750 profit. Now take 17,501,750 and divide that by the current O/S (700 mill) and you get .025. So, based on rockets "conservative" numbers and current O/S, we should be sitting at .025, much higher than our value today, fair value, undervalued by %400 as of today's close! Now add a P/E, ratio of, lets say 8, which is a nice conservative number, and you get 0.20, or 20 cents! Our stock undervalued as of close today by %3,300. Using the company's P/E ratio of 25, the stock should be .625 undervalued by %10,416 ect....
Of course this is all highly speculative: we don't have any actual numbers. And we especially don't know what the revenue's are like for track moist, kind, wet, ect - If the company could squeeze more than %25 profit from their sales, the number go's higher, if the company does more than a hundred million dollars in sales, the number gos higher. If they buy back shares, the number gos higher. No one knows what the sales are really like, but for right now I say .025 might be a fair estimate. And with a high P/E ratio...even a dollar is possible. Because, afterall, what is a P/E ratio but what people are willing to overpay based on the possibility for future growth? And this company has future growth written all over it...
but plug in any numbers you like, it's fun to think about.
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