Look at the new chart above. Wave counts and cycles ending all point to a major turn at any moment. You don't want to sit this one out. Notice that $NASI chart above has been rising in the face of all this selling. Hmmm?
Yes, we get a big move up into Feb/Apr timeframe. However, here's an interesting stat--- OCT is typically always the 'bear killer' month. But the low is established in Oct and then retested either in Dec or March. In this case with all these cycles hitting I assume the low will be retested between now and Dec.
850 was the SPX low in Oct with today's low around 885. I would think that could satisfy a 'retest'. So, be ready.
As for BRCM, remember you have the fundamentals on your side here that will quickly re-value it to where it should be.
It's not MRVL. Remember --
$2bill in cash
$1bil buyback program just starting
less than 500 mill shares in the float and shrinking from buyback
$200 mill a quarter even now in free cash
current forward projected PE under 13 with company in 'strongest position it's ever been in' per CEO
Not 1 year since 1998 has it ever NOT traded over $25. 2009 will be no different.
Probable takeout target of QCOM.
I currently control over 20k shares through stock and LEAPS and am very nervous shorting calls against the position as I normally do due to the 'takeout risk'. Hate to miss that one.
Yes, I thought it was a screaming buy at $21. The price history and fundamentals of the company back me up. But didn't expect the hedge fund blowup to screw everything up to the extent it did. Give me a break. Even the most conservative growth funds out there (American Funds and Fidelity) are down an average of 35% to 50% this year having piled into the 'value traps' of C and AIG.
As for cycle dates, they typically nail the lows within at least a week. This time it seems they are right in their degree, just not in the time. Obviously as said earlier, the problem lies with the 'deleverage' issue with hedge funds. But the momentum selling is clearly wanning. Today on that break of 900 in the SPX we'd normally see a 500 down day in the DOW. Today we only got a less than 300 with the futures now moving north of 900. So as I said, we could have possibly done a successful retest to setup a final 5th low here.
Watch MSFT for guidance. I've been daytrading it closley and haved noticed it's extremely closely trading the index moves. A move and close over $22 I think confirms the bottom (short term) is in.
But read those articles. 2011 seems to be an ugly year ahead of us. Magically it's also the 3rd year of the new Pres and if you've learned nothing from me over the last few years, you've learnd the power of 3rd year Prez cycles and how ugly they normally are. Because we're in the middle of a major bear market, this time around could be really ugly which is what you get at the end of them.
