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Re: geoscience2 post# 4562

Tuesday, 11/11/2008 12:56:02 PM

Tuesday, November 11, 2008 12:56:02 PM

Post# of 7284
Actually, it's not terrible.

First the bad: Lynn claims y/y O&G growth was astounding, but that's really not relevant. It's sequential, 3Q vs. 2Q growth that really matters and in that case, it was slightly down. I didn't see if there was a price/volume discussion, but presumably volume was up (since little of the new wells were likely in 2Q) but pricing was way down. The question becomes what the breakeven point is and whether they can achieve it.

Now the, reasonably good, G&A expenses were down. Shocking. I din't pour through the details but with pricing falling, getting expenses down is the only way this company has a chance. Also, it appears they're selling assets to raise cash. Even though cash from operations was down $6mm in the quarter it seems they sold some capital assets to stave off the looming cash crunch. It's a race now between selling assets, cutting expenses and generating revenue growth to see if the company can survive. Oh yeah, add in raising equity, but at these prices, even Lynn has to be smart enough not to do that (well, you never know with Lynn).

All in all, Lynn bought himself a little more time. Not much but perhaps enough to bring it home? Nah, not Lynn. A competent CEO maybe could do it, but not Lynn.




As always, just one man's opinion...

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