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Re: gfp927z post# 21865

Monday, 11/10/2008 10:09:21 PM

Monday, November 10, 2008 10:09:21 PM

Post# of 51849
I'm not particularly advocating for RB, but Haysaw's sarcastic 'tingle' is evidence of a particularly annoying form of information processing: Take information regarding three companies expressing interest in RD/CX717--ignore the two big name pharmas, focus on the unknown third, and select the least appealing, most negative aspect you can find--essentially the PR for their household goods. In other words, find something to trash in any informational context.

Again, I'd be a lot happier with a Merck or Lilly deal, all other things equal, which they might not be. I actually know a couple of the people in the RB BusDev section. Suboxone generates $350 million in the US, I think about half a billion worldwide. Which is 5% of RB's revenues--$10 billion per year or so. Hmmm. They have a sales force which is used to dealing with a focused group of MDs--addictions specialists. I don't think they have any interest in Ampakines for drug addiction--where's the POC for that? They want to generate revenue, and that's the kind of competent, focused sales force that could be turned to anesthesiology/hospitals.

They would not be looking for a sleep apnea or pain combo indication, the prescriber base there is too diffuse, they'd have to boost the size of their sales force. So the only premise for RB I can see would be--a partnership for RD only. Since RB has a lot of cash and is about to lose $350 million a year in sales (EU patent goes to 2016)-- it is the kind of situation where I can imagine a better-than-average upfront payment. Leaving Cortex to develop sleep apnea, ADHD, etc etc.

Anybody tingling yet?

It's not necessarily the best option--but it's a lot better than some of the dreary alternatives out there. And it has no substantive resemblance to Akzo Nobel.

NeuroInvestment

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