Friday, November 07, 2008 10:37:57 AM
CHARTS HEADING INTO NOV 15TH
Testing the "4 MTHS" theory that the dollar has a short term 4 mth rally after a disaster and then turns dramatically downward.
Arguably, the $USD did a final test of it's short term bottom on or slightly before July 15th.
Is it a coincidence that Nov 15 is the next hedgefund redemption date? That would be 4 mths.
Is it a coincidence that the gold chart shows a narrowing range of trading(WEDGE)these last several days? Or is it anticipation of not only the hedgefund redemption and top on the USD?
Is it coincidence that today's HORRIBLE jobs report and last months huge negative jobs revision didn't tank the market or has it been priced in already?
Is it a coincidence that I just heard the talking heads saying that all the money sitting on the sidelines is "waiting for the Nov 15th redemption date" to make any serious commitments.
NOW...the question is...which way will the market go THE DAY AFTER NOV 15TH? Are we really "HALFWAY THROUGH THE RECESSION" yet?
I think there's a substantial bet being made that we are, but that doesn't guarantee it.
I'll be watching the news and the charts closely to see if there are any more clues to be had.
PS: I don't yet trust today's rally. I think it's just a technical bounce after the 3rd worst 2-day drop in the market since whenever. I'd be buying at the bottom(s) of the "WEDGE" if I were going to start betting now. Today would be a good place if that's your strategy.
Seems like a lot of others are thinking the same thing.
Testing the "4 MTHS" theory that the dollar has a short term 4 mth rally after a disaster and then turns dramatically downward.
Arguably, the $USD did a final test of it's short term bottom on or slightly before July 15th.
Is it a coincidence that Nov 15 is the next hedgefund redemption date? That would be 4 mths.
Is it a coincidence that the gold chart shows a narrowing range of trading(WEDGE)these last several days? Or is it anticipation of not only the hedgefund redemption and top on the USD?
Is it coincidence that today's HORRIBLE jobs report and last months huge negative jobs revision didn't tank the market or has it been priced in already?
Is it a coincidence that I just heard the talking heads saying that all the money sitting on the sidelines is "waiting for the Nov 15th redemption date" to make any serious commitments.
NOW...the question is...which way will the market go THE DAY AFTER NOV 15TH? Are we really "HALFWAY THROUGH THE RECESSION" yet?
I think there's a substantial bet being made that we are, but that doesn't guarantee it.
I'll be watching the news and the charts closely to see if there are any more clues to be had.
PS: I don't yet trust today's rally. I think it's just a technical bounce after the 3rd worst 2-day drop in the market since whenever. I'd be buying at the bottom(s) of the "WEDGE" if I were going to start betting now. Today would be a good place if that's your strategy.
Seems like a lot of others are thinking the same thing.
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