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Wednesday, November 05, 2008 10:50:00 PM
scamman said Da Boyz bought options on futures.
Two days in a row there was a P2C over 3 on SPX "options on futures", and a P2C over 3 on SPX index, AND Open Interest on both went up accordingly.
EVEN tho it was just a co-inky-dink, some "lucky" guys got in on the move, at just the right time. That was some pretty LUCKY chumps, wasn't it.
TODAY was the 3rd day from the second R3 which never works.
The scamman said they worked in 0 to 3 days, if they were gonna work. And, that not all of them worked -- they really do appear, that if they do work, they only work well in BEAR markets. I personally lost a lot of money betting on them in a bull turn around in 2003, BUT, I do believe that in a BEAR, it's different... Go check the stats during the last 3 months and let -- ah never mind. If they did work, the smack down might only be a 2 hr to a half day event in a less volatile market. You should re-read those posts that I pointed you to. Support and resistance and fibs being met, or broken, is as important as the R3.
If you were gonna try to follow them, you would have to pay attention to open interest to hopefully know if the options were being opened up or closed out.
I have wondered if a bigger than normal C2P ratio of options on VIX might not be a tell of some sort. Last time I tried to regularly follow R3 was a year and a half ago. In this down market, MAYBE...
that's my opinion and my story, and I'm stickin to it.
10/6, 10/8, 10/23 had R3s that I pointed out here.
have a good one,
bobjack
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