"Every technical indicator I see points to down"
well, that's a warning sign, right? i mean, when sentiment indicators all point down, maybe that's different, but ...
the one thing about gold all the way since dec '01 has been that it has always been moving inversely to the dollar. its not clear to me how much the price has moved because of real increased demand, but the price has been pretty flat all that time in euros. right now, its inflation fears, i suppose, that's driving everything. but that's pushing the dollar up (because of anticipated fed reaction) and that seems to be overriding any flight to gold. that plus all the speculative money seems to have pulled out.
anyway, if i go back to dec 01, and the rising support of that whole move, hui clearly broke that on the 3-crows in april, and on the XAU it looks absolutely clear that it looks like it at least hit its rising support, which would be around 70 ...
oh, and one thing i've found over the last 2.5 years with gold is that it doesn't pay to play the contrarian against the sentiment of gold bulls.
