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Re: JC$ post# 94171

Thursday, 10/30/2008 8:29:07 AM

Thursday, October 30, 2008 8:29:07 AM

Post# of 137667
Good Question!

The large US manufacturers will all be receiving significant financial assistance from government subsidized / guaranteed loans, but those are simply "survival" dollars in this financial climate. No administration wants hundreds of thousands of unemployed auto workers with the catastrophic economic impact that would accompany that situation, of course.

The most onerous issue facing the industry is the lack of financial consumer confidence that the market is showing, where buying new cars (and in particular US made cars!) just isn't the first thing on people's minds. There will need to be material changes made in the fundamentals of the US auto industry DNA if it's going to survive in this global market. For a wide variety of reasons way too numerous to start talking about, US automakers just can't manufacture and sell comparable vehicles at the same cost points as their international competition, and it's put them competitively between a rock and a hard place right now.

While a great deal of America's discretionary auto spending is being cut back, historically, this hasn't affected the high end of the market as much, where, by the way, foreign manufacturers such as Daimler-Mercedes, Audi(and Lambo), Ferrari, Maserati (where sales are growing at a 20% annual rate!) Bentley (VW), Rolls Royce (BMW) and Aston Martin show continued strength.

Taking the preceding into consideration, it would suggest that the potential niche market for the GTM is still robust.

History, however, also strongly tells us that boutique auto manufacturers such as Revenge are much more prone to fail than to succeed, and that challenge to Revenge is exacerbated by both the tightened credit markets and the obvious stigma that attaches to start-ups, where a "let's wait and see if they're around a year or so from now until we plunk down $100K (+)" attitude is not uncommon.

In summary, if Revenge is going to make it, then they need a super-solid prototype that will be well received by the automobile media, the video game manufacturers (inclusion of the GTM in all of the car oriented games would be huge) and of course the buying public, limited as they may be, itself. I’m old enough to remember when Car and Driver’s “GTO vs GTO” 1960's article favorably comparing the Pontiac GTO to the Ferrari GTO exploded not only the popularity of the US GTO, but helped the entire Pontiac division of GM as well , and this is the kind of press that can make a difference for Revenge. The power of the media cannot be understated, and Revenge will have only one chance to make a great first impression.

Roll-outs like this are both critical & extremely expensive, as auto shows, sales / marketing materials and advertising in general are all major cash guzzling factors in the equation.

Simply put, Revenge's capital needs will mandate deep-pocket affiliations and / or another trip back to the equity markets to successfully move past the entrepreneurial or developmental stages where it is now and be potentially positioned for market share and hopefully, eventual profitability.

The automobile business is an extremely difficult one to survive in, just in general, with way too many failed examples to even start listing. It's imperative to the future of the Company that the intro is strong and glitch free and that the first units out the door are not only glamorous and fast, but reliable and safe as well.

Revenge has it's work cut out for it, and it's cause hasn't been helped by the chronic shareholder relations-credibility issues that it's allowed itself to be characterized by, which of and unto itself is going to take a great deal of rectification if the Company is to have hopes of success in the capital markets.

We live in very challenging times, and the next several months are going to be both critical and highly interesting, particularly for those of us who are RVGD shareholders.