Christian Conservative

[bliz82]

It must really hurt the mainstream media to admit that the polls continue to tighten. We need all the Christian Conservative voters out en masse Tuesday. Vote for the pro-life, less government, pro-Constitution (not the flawed one that Obama sees)ticket of McCain/Palin. I think more and more Americans are starting to understand Obama's "spread the wealth" statement and they don't like it. His extremist ties to so many others are also starting to get more traction.

National polls tighten a bit; Obama hangs on to lead in battlegrounds

With less than a week till Election Day, any movement in the polls is big news. In the Real Clear Politics national poll average, Barack Obama's 8-point lead from Saturday has decreased to 5.9, due mostly to a gain in John McCain's average.

Three major polls have seen a significant squeeze in the past five days, causing this trend. Today, a Rasmussen poll put Obama at a 3-point lead. McCain has gained 3 points in their survey since Saturday and Obama has lost two, putting the race at the narrowest margin this poll has seen since late September.

This followed the drastic squeeze seen in the Reuters/Zogby/C-SPAN this weekend. After enjoying a 12-point lead in their poll last week, Obama's lead shrunk to around 5 points and held steady there for a few days.

The latest poll to close was Gallup. Their traditional likely voter turnout model has Obama up by three, after having a 7-point lead at one point last week. (Take note: Gallup has multiple voter models. Which one is right depends on who shows up to vote. The other models have Obama up by 7-points today.)

As we've cautioned in this blog space before, it's best to keep up with the state polls too. Remember, the Electoral College doesn't make decisions based on national mood.

With that in mind, here is graphical snapshot of where the polling lies as shown on the Yahoo! News Political Dashboard. Below, we break out specifics about the 11 battleground states' most recent polling averages and trends. The data for both is supplied by our friends at Real Clear Politics.


Colorado: Obama + 7.2
The last time McCain was ahead in the polling average here was late August. He lost the lead when Democrats held their nominating convention in Denver.

Florida: Obama +3.5
McCain had a commanding lead here for most of the election season. The lead flipped in the beginning of October. Both candidates campaign in Florida today, a sign of just how tight the race is there.

Indiana: Obama +1.4
The polls don't agree in this state, possibly a reflection of disparate polling days. A Big 10 poll released a week ago has Obama up by 10. A more recent Zogby poll has McCain up by six. Note: this state has voted Republican in at least the last five election cycles.

Missouri: Obama + 0.2
A tie! McCain was leading decisively here until around September 20th when his poll numbers started to slide. Watch what happens here on election night - historically, Missouri votes with the winner. Note: CNN/Time just released a poll that has McCain up by two.

Nevada: Obama +7.5
Obama started to solidify a lead at the beginning of the month, but McCain's polling average has taken a precipitous drop in the past couple of days.

New Hampshire: Obama +12.6
McCain owes this state for making him a household name in the 2000 presidential election. Polling suggests the Granite State won't help him this time around.

New Mexico: Obama + 7.3
Take this lead with a grain of salt. Most of these numbers are at least two weeks old if not a month tired. This state voted with Bush in 2004, but Gore won a squeaker here in 2000, by less than 1,000 votes.

North Carolina: Obama +1.3
Essentially a tie. For 20 or so years, Republicans won this state by double-digits when a third-party candidate was not involved.

Ohio: Obama +5.8
This one is tight. Neither candidate has been ahead by more than an average of 6 points since April. Conventional wisdom says turnout matters here. If city voters come out, Obama wins the state. If the rural areas show up, McCain wins.

Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Most outlets are listing this as a strong Obama state, but just like Ohio, turnout could turn this state into a tight race. Kerry won here by less than 3 percentage points. Gore won here by four.

Virginia: Obama +7.6
Virginia has not voted for a Democrat in more than 40 years. If Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida vote Republican, a Democratic win here could be key in a tight Obama win.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl114