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Thursday, October 23, 2008 1:20:15 PM
Note that, even after massive dilution, if/when an R&D company becomes profitable, a person who averaged down wisely and within his means, would tend to ultimately see a large % profit. One key is being able to discern which companies will likely be winners, and which ones likely will not. And the difference is not only up to the company, it's also up to the shareholders to appropriately support that company (I'm talking about _all_ publicly traded R&D companies, here. If the company is worth supporting, it's the investors' loss if they don't support it properly.)
This worst-case scenario of yours, the 1 billion shares turning into 1 share, is one of never averaging down, it's important to note. Of course, most shareholders aren't that patient, and don't average down consistently. But I am that patient, and I am averaging down, in a big way. I see a lot more value in DNAG, than its current market cap. A whole lot more. It's a company that deserves to succeed, and has come a long way, already. You don't abandon ship when you're so close to the destination, not if you want to see success. Successfully playing this game takes discipline, and conviction with regard to the company's most likely ultimate value. We shouldn't put all our eggs in one basket, ever, and if we follow these simple principles, success comes more often than not. (Except for people who aren't smart enough to do investing, and there are lots of those.)
I'm much more worried about manipulation in the stock market, especially as it pertains to vulnerable R&D companies, than I am about that fact of life we call dilution. It's not something to fear, it's something to take into account when devising and executing strategies. Manipulation, on the other hand, is rightly illegal, and has grown far out of control, in recent years, robbing and victimizing investors and companies beyond belief, dooming many companies that well deserved to succeed. No wonder the American economy is declining, relative to much of the world. We don't adequately protect our precious start-up companies, the R&D's included. What a shame, what a crime it is.
P.S., there are multiple reasons I'm buying so many DNAG shares, now. One is, I think the stock is extremely, extremely undervalued, and I'm averaging down aggressively. Also, I think the company is going through a tough time right now, and any help they can get, potentially means more now, than it might at any other time. I want the company to succeed. Also, the stock market is so full of negativity and manipulation, now, many stocks are very, very undervalued now, making this a good time to buy stocks that you would otherwise think are good stocks, anyway. (Many, many stocks are currently cheap.) Also, the credit markets are beginning to thaw, meaning new funding for DNAPrint might not be that far off, and I think that as a business, they stand a good chance of becoming profitable in the next few years (if not sooner.) No guarantee, but I think it's worth the risk. (High risk with potentially very, very high reward.)
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