Ambac Financial Group Inc (AMBC)

[phrantic]

Check this out from the Yahoo board:
Here is a link to the Gasparino interview from CNBC

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60 million short shares covering and the end of the nakes short blasts (which i believe we saw last week)
not a downgrade buy a ratings upgrade
moody's saying wouldn't DG muni bonds was first sign gov. was preventing a run on muni finances...now gov. wants to prevent any defaults at all by getting ABK and MBI the AAA they deserve.
liquidating hedge funds also have to cover any shorts
lehman cds unwind fears for insurers? try fear for the shorts now.
last time we saw low vol, pinned price, abk skyrocketed and i said before we saw accumulation this week from big money holding down abk versus its peers. why? because abk will be the biggest beneficiary--no other bond insurer has the moody's watch, san fran bs, buffet, etc. resting on its shoulders...to bad abk just threw them off. xl went from 3 to 13 on losing 6 bucks a share. we are projected around negative fifty cents on nov 3. anything around there should prove our solvency in the toughest quarter of our history to date, and earnings will make this baby rocket as well (see the heavy call buying). i think rdn moving up a credit watch was also a sign somebody knew something may be in the works. who actually thought an insurer could go BK and kill a city/states finances at this time of panic?
did you know hedgies pay no taxes on short gains when firms BK but when they cover shorts for profits, they pay taxes...huge incentive to keep the pressure on. unfortunately, now with the news and the likelihood of potential writeups on the new m2m and fair value guidelines (don't rule out the ABA getting the SEC to go for all out m2m elimination and to protect the u.s. gov investments since banks will still need capital for further losses), a connie lee update (WOULD BE GREAT TO HEAR CONNIE LEE UPDATE PREMARKET), the initial tarp purchases of mbs and cds and the tightening of credit spreads across all instruments bringing valuations back into realistic levels, a share buyback...

I say 4 to 5 tomorrow, and once the big $ funds and day traders and retail guys catch on to the story, see the charts, etc. i think we could add 15-20% a day into earnings. that would put us above 10 soon. then we got to go out and beat the shnikeys out of the comp--note the market bouncing on any further selloff might alos provide ammo, but with all the cash on the sidelines right now ready for deployment in attractive sectors (see the merrill fund manager "everything is cheap but we all want to hold cash") like insurers