FRE on Monday - ADX(14) 20.17, ADXR(14) 31.77, RSI(14,)38.20, Accumulated/Distribution Line (14) slight divergence, harami-like candlestick patterns, considerable volume increase over the previous day, extended day trading general price maintenance (1.16 to 1.18) and other trend indicator put together gives us a weakening of a downward trend plus uncertainty. One slightly bullish indicator is a comparison of the August 24- 25, Fri. to Mon harami-like pattern that is the closet recent match to the candlestick pattern we have now for 10/9-10. Another is the slight divergence in the ACC/Dist line. Overall, there is not enough information to augur an outcome for Monday. It appears that Monday will be another day to rock n' roll that will be greatly dependent on market psychology and not company fundamentals and the trading of institutional owners of FRE common stock.
Sunday night-Monday morning market psychology is motored by fiscal crisis management news and such news will affect intraday trading all day tommorrow since a bottom has not been declared or uniformly felt. A key news event with be the Monday LIBOR. Uncertainty about the 3 month LIBOR will not be announced until after 11 AM to 11:45 AM London time or 6:00 AM to 6:45 AM ET. A significant lowering of the LIBOR after the G7 and G20 meetings and enactment of national plans to spur interbank lending would indicate a possible credit thaw; a signal that the financial machinery is getting some juice to operate.
If institutional owners through market makers and specialists increase share volume, trade price movements will be very volatile going up and/or down significantly during the day depending on what share price/cost basis is being entered as well as by news reports during the day on US efforts to encourage interbank lending. There could be significant and rapid drops or gains in price if institutional owners (investment firms, mutual funds) etc, who own 99% of the 647 million shares of outstanding common stock (June 30, 2008 level) come out to play to and work to raise prices or get rid of shares through the market makers and specialists by offering lower than market prices. Watch the FRE MM's if you have Level 2 to gauge their trading sentiment or behavior. Small traders will do well to follow market makers if a high volume of trading occurs. Buy, sell, and/or hold depends on your stomach for intraday trade in this still volatile stock.
Good Luck!
