Transmeta (Semiconductor) (TMTA)

[weaksidehelp]

Only a guess, Fred.

Obviously we are "outperforming" techs, so more than general market forces are at work. IBMs troubles and AMDs incursion into ARM chips might be having an effect, but my guess is that we are being run down by the MMs.

I think the stock has been manipulated for three weeks now, with the MMs trying to get retail shareholders to sell shares so that institutions can start to get back into their prior positions. As you probably know, most institutions cannot own shares under a certain minimum, commonly $4 or $5. Last fall TMTA had only 10% or so institutional ownership, down from 60% during the heyday. I am not sure of the accuracy of ThompsonFN, but they now report much higher institutional ownership, and strong interest today by institutions to BUY.

http://iw.thomsonfn.com/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=TMTA&range=0&mgp=0&i=2&hdate=&....

The only other plausible explanation for such a downturn on no news is that the numbers next week are going to be bad, and this info is leaking. Or other bad news, perhaps. I have a great problem believing this, however. TMTA did not pre-announce bad news, as they have in the past. The bar is so low ($3.5-4 million was guidance for 1Q02) they should not only make it but exceed it from the secondary information we have been discussing for some time. Further, the company seems very concerned these days about credibility, so I think they would be aggressive in pointing towards bad news.

I am still long with no thoughts of selling. To me, it is a buying opportunity. However, please keep in mind the old adage about free info being worth what you pay for it.


regards, wsh