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Sunday, October 05, 2008 10:26:30 AM
This market is like a hurricane that won't wind down. LUM had all its eggs in the ARCO basket. ARCO, did not stay the course, got scared and decided to turn on LUM. At that point it was game over. LUM's management at first tried to put a good face on things, but after while they acted like they didn't care either. No PR as you slip onto the BB, was my exit point. I was looking for a possible re-entry but when they declared they were not going to pay unsecured lenders, that told me no re-entry.
Impact Mortgage, if you follow their most recent calls, has a strategy that they started back in August of 07, that basically said, stop, hunker down, prepare for the worst.
The fact that they could negotiate their way out of many margin call situations is just rock solid management. Better than paying the margin call. They were preparing early for a long tough battle. When the CEO mentioned on the call before the last one, that their then financial condition was exactly the same as when the stock traded at $10, was an eye opener.
The volume here speaks volumes. When you factor that there really isn't much retail presence on this board, much of any pumping per se, you must conclude that the movement is "in the know" or "smart" money.
This peeked over a buck a couple weeks ago. I don't think it's too late to come back. But I respect any body's exit from this sector.
Quite frankly, it was appealing when I first took a position in my biggest loser, Novastar, it is appealing now. It's just a matter of finding a horse that will endure.
IMH right here is a solid entry.
imho...jw
p.s.future success to you... "
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