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Re: Burk post# 253589

Sunday, 06/06/2004 12:06:27 AM

Sunday, June 06, 2004 12:06:27 AM

Post# of 704019
What is amazing is how many people are trying to tell us that no, this time it is different and these three faithful indicators are wrong. I am tiring of reading all the rationalizations. To me, not only do the indicators point out to excessive bearishness, but the abundance of commentators rationalizing these as bearish, further justify my staunch bullish stance. Most likely, within the next two weeks I will raise my top target for the year to around 2500 from the extreme I had before at 2390 (that was until now not "very likely" and just a possible excursion, now that number is "in" and the above 2500 takes the "excursion spot).

You may also want to add one of Zweig favorite, the NYSE MA ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks going above 2.... I think Alex mentioned earlier in the week how that signal in the last 50 years or so has given some 10 to 15 buy signals, all of which were "right". That is a rare signal and it misses many intermediate trend changes, but more often than not, 6 months later the market is up nicely, if memory serves I used to get Zweig's letter, but discontinued it in the early 90', when his slow indicators could not cope with fast changing markets, his famous Fed watch rule (don't fight the feds) also failed miserably in early 2001... I still consider him one of the more cogent market prognosticators. particularly like his "I am always worried" (g), it must be a "Jewish state of mind" (VBG).

AZH

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