Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Thank you for moving the chat group to a more accessible forum. I been reading your posts for the last 12 months.

I think the rally in crude oil is over or nearly so. The Elliott waves indicate this 5 year ending diagonal is near completion. This week the price popped up to a new high after an expanding triangle in the wave 4 position finished. Todays trading took the price below the beginning of what I'm calling wave 5.

To give you an idea where the price of oil is headed, just look at the pullback last spring after the US invaded Iraq. Oil plunged from $40 to $30 in about 2 months. This time it's different. Wave theory predicts the pullback to go to the levels of the beginning of the 5 year ending diagonal. That would be less than $20 per barrel.

The DAX and FTSE are ready for the next wave of selling. The FTSE will be in a wave 3. The DAX will be in a 3 of something. I'm not sure if the DAX truncated or the waves are too wild in Germany. The Dow Jones World index is also ready for a wave 3.

While the world markets are ready to sell off, they are not completely synchronized to the same wave count. This is one of the effects of globalism. Introduction of new goods and services to existing markets can generate the same emotional response. It will be interesting to see how individual markets sell off. Which herd will start the stampede?