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Re: brezlin post# 8336

Thursday, 09/25/2008 12:04:12 PM

Thursday, September 25, 2008 12:04:12 PM

Post# of 58002
nss possible, but not likely to be of any real size. Yesterday evening I just happened to run across a ftd link that was posted on the hmgp board trying to prove ftd's for that stock. I put in other pennies where I knew the trading history, and it basically showed that on large percent increases in the price, the ftd's went up, but never so high that it was a significant portion of the os. Judging from that data, and combining it with other observations, I'd way that generally a large nss position only exists in very few circumstances, like when a specific company is being targeted. A classic example is dndn. They have been shorted heavily by funds tied into chemo-therapy providers who are trying to suppress competition in a multibillion dollar industry. Interactive brokers I believe allows little guys like us to short even penny stocks, and I'm certain that canadian and other offshore brokerages do as well if you have the capital.

My guess is that there are professional shorts out there who look for the spike in pennies and routinely short them. This would account for the spike in ftd's at peaks in share prices. It's also a very safe way to play, as 99.9% of pennies always retrace spikes and most continue the slide downward. My guess is that there are some of those traders out there who shorted this at this .008 level first, and then tried again at .02. They're probably a few million shares short and want to cover here, but the sellers are so few they are having a hard time. They'll try to put a lid on all rallies until a big wave of buying hits that they can't stop. That's not likely to happen until we see the next substantive development from the company. In the mean time, the more we buy the fewer they can cover.

There is, however, another possibility to explain what is happening. We don't know the terms of those 28 million shares issued subsequent to June 30. Some or all of those could be hitting the market. I'd like to think that they have restrictions on them, but we just don't know.