Wednesday, September 24, 2008 7:51:34 PM
I am much more optomistic about the future SP than many others. Here is my best case scenario:
1. Good RD-1 results: SP jumps to ~2.00, then settles at 1.25 to 1.50 as people wait for 'The Financing'
2. Partnership announced for global RD only with terms on the order of $10M/year research support, ~15% of earnings, and $50M up front with the partner (SPG, JNJ or PFE) taking 10M new shares: SP jumps to ~6.00, then settles ~4.00
If RD-1 is not clean, then I would divide everything (except revenue from sales) by 2. At this point, I don't see a huge downside. If things are perceived to be negative, then we'll see a drop to ~0.40, but I think the partnership will still follow with the jump to ~3.00.
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