k-qc Re: EV-DV-
I posted this (see below) on SI the other day- Dr's IMJ and Jha's responses to EV-DV questions.
Additionally-
1. Q' addressable market is now the world of wireless-
1.a...Was just CDMA 100M handsets / year
1.b...Now 600M growing to 800M handsets per year.
1.c...Even if the Q's overall chipset share fell from 90% to
25% (very highly unlikely) at 800M handsets sold it would still be selling 2X the number of chipsets it currently sells.
1.d..The Q will most likely continue to have a very high chipset market share-
........EV-DO...100%
........GSM1x...100%
........CDMA2000 1x...70%?
........WCDMA... 50% ?
........EV-DV... 50% ?
2.....The Q's royalty will be on all versions of CDMA regardless of whether the handset has a Q chipset or not. Royalty revenue with 93% margins will expand expotentially.
3. It's my understanding that only two carriers to date have indicated that they are considering EV-DV. And, Sprint is now said to be moving toward EV-DO to stay competitive with VZN.
Prior Post>>>>>>>
Re: Sprint / EV-DO Rel A vs EV-DV time to market (commercial deployment), Drs. Jha and IMJ stated the following during the Q&A at the latest earnings CC April 21 in response to two questions:
Q- Can your maybe give us an update on potential timing on some of the new exciting areas, like EV-DV and HSDPA?
A. Dr.-. We have indicated that we will sample in the fourth quarter this year, MSM 5275 which will be the world's first fully integrated HSDPA device. It will have significantly enhanced multimedia capability so we are on track for that sample.
EV-DO revision A we will sample in first quarter '05 and
EV-DV, MSM and CSM we will sample in fourth quarter this year.
Though I think we have indicated before, we believe that commercial deployment of EV-DO revision A may actually be sooner than EV-DV because of the complexity of system verification and deployment associated with the brand new system like EV-DV as opposed to a minor variation of the already commercially deployed system like DV-DO.
... we believe we will be able to deliver a Gigahertz processor in 2005.
.... RF CMOS as I indicated earlier we have already sampled to some customers, but we're going to migrate every single RF device that we have to RFC Moss as soon as possible thereafter.
Q- Sanjay mentioned that EV-DO REVA equipment subscriber and there was equipment could come in before ED-VD. Just wondering when do you think we might see the first commercial network and subscriber equipment being available for EV-DO REV A?
A- Dr. IMJ: That's a little hard to say because that does involve the various infrastructure manufacturers getting the upgrades on the software. Having said that, I think there's a great interest in moving to REV A as quickly as possible by all of the operators that are now putting DO in place. And so there's pressure on the operators to do so. So by 2006 I think we will be seeing significant build up on REV A and possibly some initial uses earlier.
Dr. Jha: Certainly in terms of CSM chips, we will sample our highly integrated CSM 6800 in fourth quarter this year and the MSM in first quarter next year, so we will support a deployment though we recognize that there are lots of other components and players who have to develop their solutions before it can be deployed.
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It appears that the Q with the added R&D is going all out to bring REV A commercial ASAP, fulfilling another promise to their investors to aggressively compete at all levels (CDMA chipset market share, etc). Can we say- going for the knock out punch?
The ramifications of Verizon’s nationwide EV-DO deployment continue, and I still wonder how much of the additional CSM units (4 times higher last qtr yoy) are EV-DO related and if the Q incentivized VZN to accelerate EV-DO.
It will certainly be interesting to see this all play out.
AI
