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[RonnieD]

WE WERE WARNED.

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Bears See Darker Outlook for Bad News Banks
By DAN DORFMAN
June 27, 2008

One of the most outspoken bears, global money manager Jim Rogers, who boasts a strong international following, is not only gloomier than ever, but he's warning that the bloodbath in the financial sector is far from over. He re-enforces the growing view that we're now in the reign of the bear.


Mr. Rogers, 62, who last August packed his bags, left New York City, and moved with his family to Singapore, told me the other day in an interview: "I wouldn't buy an American stock."

Even scarier, he says he expects a further collapse in leading American bank stocks, to less than $10 to $15 a share, because "bank balance sheets remain loaded with garbage that still has to be cleaned out."

Given current share prices of such prominent banks as JPMorgan Chase ($36.32), Bank of America ($24.81), Citigroup ($17.67), and Wells Fargo ($24.07) — down roughly 30% to 66% from their 52-week highs — the outlook for additional declines of the magnitude he's suggesting seems somewhat far-fetched, barring a major outbreak of panic selling.

Not to Mr. Rogers, who recalls that in the early 1990s Citigroup sold at less than $10 a share. Interestingly, while many pros are pushing the financials, he says he plans to short them (a bet on a lower price) on any rebound. He also points out that most bank stocks sold at less than $10 to $15 a share in years gone by.

If his scenario were indeed to come to pass, it would almost certainly push most stock prices appreciably lower in a market that has already seen the Dow, which swept past 14,000 last July, shed more than 2,000 points.

"We're in a recession. The Federal Reserve has been holding up the market through massive money printing, but that can't last much longer because of the impact on the dollar and the world's total lack of confidence in the Fed's actions," Mr. Rogers says. "They're doing the wrong thing. As the dollar declines, they're not letting firms fail, and they're also taking a lot of garbage on their own balance sheet. At the moment, you have sheer incompetence running the Fed."

His personal market strategy, he notes, is the ownership of commodities and the sale of dollars on any rally. "I want to get rid of my American dollars," he says. Citigroup, Fannie Mae, and some leading home builders are among his present shorts.

When the Dow topped 14,000 last July, many bulls boldly predicted 15,000, maybe even 16,000, before year-end. The big question then was: How high is high? Now, 11 months later, it is how low is low before the market can regain its financial footing.

While no one is clairvoyant, some bears argue the ingredients are clearly in place for the Dow to head a lot lower. Their chief rationale:

oSubstantially more financial company write-offs lie ahead; the International Monetary Fund puts the figure at an additional $945 billion worldwide, while some other forecasters, citing enormous unrecognized losses, say future write-offs could top $1 trillion.

oThe housing horror show is far from over. About 1.1 million homes are presently in foreclosure, and veteran Chicago real estate developer Robert Sheridan, of Robert Sheridan & Partners, predicts the figure could easily top 1.5 million as housing prices undergo further declines of at least 15% to 20%. "The key is you have to measure any housing recovery in years, not in months," he says.

oDespite a global economic slowdown and declining demand two years running from industrialized nations, the price of oil, which has ballooned to a record $140.05 a barrel, is destined to go higher, largely spurred by surging demand from China and India. Forecasts of a further rise before year-end of $150 to $200 a barrel from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Boone Pickens are becoming increasingly more widespread.

A top-performing technical analyst, Mark Leibovit, head of VRTrader.com, an online technical research service, also sees grim tidings ahead. "My work tells me we're going down more," he says, "that the dollar is still in trouble, that we're in a long-term bull market in commodities and natural resources, and the overall trend remains favorable for gold and silver."

Taking note of a very negative news environment, lack of any upside volume, and the failure of every dollar rally, Mr. Leibovit says the potential exists for the Dow — which closed yesterday at 11,453.42 — to fall to 10,500. He says his more negative indicators point to even lower numbers, possibly even 8,900.

Giving our bears added credibility is a former Fed chief, Alan Greenspan, who earlier this week said he thought the stock market "crisis" might extend into 2009.

The bottom line from the bears: It's the wrong time to be a stockholder, or, as one put it, a "stuckholder."

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