Apple Inc (AAPL)

[Tex]

re sense and price for Apple

Look, Apple has been volatile for years, and it's frequently moved either on news, or in anticipation of (or disappointment over) planned events. These things aren't performance data, they're opportunities for people to acquire disagreement about the company's future uncertainty. (At best, they're information about Apple's competitive position. Let's not pretend there's no sense to the price moves, it's just sense that has more to do with emotion and excitement sometimes than with economic analysis.)

Apple is making money. The analysts publishing price targets (and no, I don't think they're particularly worth believing) claim to have a mathematical model supporting anything from the low 100s to the low 200s. But: GIGO. (Garbage In, Garbage Out. These guys get a number by plugging in assumptions about the future, and whatever they claim they assume can support whatever number they are willing to sign their name to. In the end their job isn't much different than that of market participants, they just risk less.)

If an event doesn't blow someone's socks off, it can be seen as eliminating upside uncertainty, and taking the wind out of the sails of bull speculators. So far, the thinking on the event is that it'll not lead to improvements in modeled sales.

The real news from this quarter, in my view, is the boring data on sales of computers (the ones with the Intel processors, and the ones with the ARM processors that are marketed as phones or touch-screen music players) running MacOS X. Apple's profits growing the platform's value are, in my view, the place to look for information about Apple's future. Sadly, we only get snapshots of this every so often.

If you don't like the Apple shares gyrating wildly, find something less exciting to own. I have been used to Apple's bucking for so long, I can't feel my @$$ any more.

Take care,
--Tex.