Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[bobs10]

In looking at these server numbers one has to remember that they are heavily back-end weighted. By that I mean that if you were to get all the news releases concerning sales, e.g. tier1, tier2, all channels etc. and put them all together in chronological sequence you would see a snowball building in which actual sales lag by a quarter or more the product announcements. The important thing here is the constant drumbeat of announcements by new adopters and new product streams by existing Opteron sellers we have seen since the Opteron introduction in April of 93.

On the purchaser side of things there has undoubtedly been a long period of tire kicking. As the Opterons have proved themselves and the drumbeat of positive media articles increased, the acceptance of the Opterons has started to take off. We're fast getting to the point where a continuation of the sales growth exhibited so far is going to translate into very big numbers, for AMD anyway.

One other thing. Red Storm is scheduled for completion in H204. I'm sure they have purchased some Opterons to prove the concept, but given the nature or processors, more for less over time, it's unlikely that they have purchased the bulk of the chips yet. Given that the architecture doesn't require the same chips within the entire super computer it makes sense that they would wait until everything else was working before committing to the chips.

Your numbers look very reasonable.