Biotech Values

[corpstrat]

<<crappy “virtual” biotech companies >>

Your argument appears to be that it's always a better bet if a lead-molecule failure does not result in the stock falling to zero, because there's something else in early stages for management to tout.

To which the reply is, nonsense! (Or, what's wrong with a total wipeout?)

With a single-product developer it obviously depends on the price of the bet relative to the payout if the bet comes out well, and the chance of it coming out well. In the case of one of your top bashees, RPRX, the price is about 5% of the payout with success. You're not being paid a lot to bet against Proellex. (Leave aside that there's another drug in play, so Proellex failure might not take the stock to zero.)

Maybe it's a matter of taste, but some of us like pure plays where one can see what the bet is. Your "well, they'll have something else in the pipe one day" stories are way too fuzzy to value. It's like a VC investment without the insight into and control of the management. Of course, it sometimes works out well - aka lucky.

Have at it (as if you need permission).