Zeev's Turnips Talk Politics (ZTTP)

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From the Australian press and their leading conservative daily
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Don’t kid yourself that Obama is not qualified
Geoff Elliott Blog | September 02, 2008 | 32 Comments

Former George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum raises something that is utterly obvious to anyone who seen Obama on the hustings. Don’t underestimate him. Frum’s sage advice really underpins a view the conservative brand is in big trouble. Money quote:

Can we conservatives please stop kidding ourselves about Barack Obama’s “qualifications”? ... Obama’s nomination was not handed to him. He fought hard for it and won against the odds. “Qualifications” predict achievement. Once you have achieved, it doesn’t matter what your qualifications are. Who cares whether the guy who built a big company from nothing didn’t have much of a resume when he started? But if you are applying to run a big company built by somebody else, the resume matters ...

The worst mistake in any fight is to under-estimate your opponent’s abilities. Look what happened to the people who under-estimated Reagan. If conservatives are to have any hope in the coming weeks, we should wake up to the fact that we face in Barack Obama a formidable man, who appeals to something important and deep in the American electorate. He’s not a superman, he has vulnerabilities, he can be beaten. But he won’t be beaten until we who are trying to beat him understand why and how he has come so far ...

Frum is right. And as soon as I heard news of the Palin pick my gut reaction was that McCain had blown the election. Gut reaction. Could be wrong. Sure, Palin is exciting for the conservative base but I suspect it loses McCain a lot of independents who he is relying on to win.

Political campaigns are about hitting a simple, clear message repeatedly. Obama’s amorphous change mantra might just be warmed over liberal/progressive policies but he has tapped into something and he has not deviated from that message in 18 months. McCain’s campaign, frankly, has been all over the shop. The Palin pick was another example of a left field decision (sorry, that should be right field) that will give everyone a heady feeling but I’m not sure how long conservatives will be smiling. Who knows how the story of her teenage daughter being pregnant plays out (good or bad) but it is a big distraction at this Republican convention, where McCain wanted to reinforce his credentials as a commander in chief and draw clear lines of difference with Obama. But now everyone is talking about Palin. The sort of questions the US media want to know about in light of this story is: is Palin’s policy against explicit sex education in schools a good thing? That stuff is fair game for the media and the Palin-daughter-pregnancy story is the most popular news item in the US today. Every family has challenges, I make no judgment on it, but in terms of the political ramifications, conservatives could take it in their stride (what choice do they have), some blue collar voters will relate but moderates - the all important moderates - could be turned off.

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/geoffelliott/index.php/theaustralian/comments/dont_kid_yourse...