A little history..Not so fast forward
Personal video recorders have undeniable allure for TV-loving consumers. So why is the market stuck on pause?
Paul G Schreier, Contributing Editor -- CommVerge, 10/1/2001
Maybe, just maybe, this is the killer product the electronics industry has been waiting for. It's addictive. After only a few days, users can't believe they ever got along without it. Better yet, the potential market is enormous—equal to the number of TV-viewing households worldwide.
We're talking about the personal video recorder (PVR). That's the industry's somewhat unwieldy name for a hard-disk-based digital video recorder that can personalize your boob-tube experience. Questionable moniker aside, most observers agree that TV-loving consumers will eventually snap up PVRs in mass quantities.
Beyond this core belief, however, all is unknown. Though TiVo and other first-generation PVRs validated the concept, they simultaneously demonstrated that PVRs won't become a mass-market sensation overnight. It's still unclear when the broad consumer market will take off and what types of business models will succeed. And aside from these big-picture questions, product teams with a PVR on the drawing board must contemplate practical matters, such as what features their PVR should include and how to build it.
PVRs are much more than souped-up VCRs built around hard disks. In addition to storing up to 60 hours of programming, today's models provide a bevy of user-hooking features. First and foremost, they make use of a downloaded electronic program guide (EPG), which most obtain by making a phone call in the wee hours. The EPG allows users to select the shows they wish to record by name—a vast improvement over the arcane programming procedures common with analog VCRs.
What's more, a PVR presents its inventory of recorded material in a neat, point-and-click menu—no more fast-forwarding through a stack of 180-minute tapes looking for that episode of Futurama you taped two weeks ago last Sunday. If a sporting event you're recording runs long, a PVR can adjust. Some PVRs can record one program while you watch another, or even record two at once. Famously, some models observe your viewing habits and then make suggestions about what other shows you might like to record (for a personal review of these features, see our October 2000 Inside the Digital Den, "Big Brother"). As gravy, PVRs provide so-called "trick" features, such as the ability to pause live TV.
“There are 95 million TV homes in the US, and only a stand-alone PVR will serve many of them for a long time.”
Ted Malone, TiVo
As alluring as these features are, the market hasn't yet taken off (see the sidebar, "Delayed response"). However, Forrester Research estimates that 34 million Americans will have PVRs in their homes by 2005. This prediction should please all sectors of the electronics industry. "Consumption of these devices will be enormous," says Richard Johnson of Cachevision, a joint venture of Seagate and Thompson Multimedia that is developing PVR technology to sell to both manufacturers and service providers. "We expect that the number of hard disks consumed in PVRs could be as large as the number in the PC space."
Brainstorm about other places PVRs could ultimately go, and the numbers grow even higher. A PVR in the van could entertain kids on a long trip. A portable PVR (a PPVR?) could let you share programs with a friend in the same way you pass videotapes today. "Before we get to these applications, though, we have to see cost reductions in the technology and also make great progress in the area of digital rights management," Johnson adds. "Only after we see broad adoption of a usage model acceptable to the average consumer can we think about other form factors."
Unsettled
At this early stage, the PVR presents a rapidly moving target for any product team taking aim at the market. In fact, it's still unclear what the dominant PVR configuration will look like.
Many observers believe that the days of the standalone PVR are numbered. These integrationists argue that PVR functions will soon become a standard part of cable set-top boxes and satellite receivers. However, one of the remaining sellers of standalone units begs to differ. Ted Malone, director of product and service marketing for TiVo, says that his firm offers both standalone and integrated models (the combo box includes a DirecTV receiver). However, TiVo sells far more standalone units. "There are 95 million TV homes in the US, and only a stand-alone PVR will serve many of them for a long time," Malone says.
Those who favor integration argue that a standalone box forces consumers to learn two user interfaces, one for the PVR and one for the set-top box. Malone labels that claim as FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) propagated by his competition. He explains that a TiVo typically controls the set-top box. When you send a channel-change command to the TiVo, it translates it into the command the set-top box requires. "You can essentially throw away the set-top box remote, except for authorizing a [pay-per-view] purchase," Malone says. Furthermore, customers who change cities and/or cable providers don't have to learn another EPG.
Forrester Research predicts that of the 8.2 million households expected to have a PVR next year, 43 percent will be built into satellite boxes. Cable operators will install another 20 percent and the remaining 37 percent will be other varieties.
“Can we really expect a universal box that combines games, digital cable TV, satellite TV, and maybe other functions? Likely not.”
Tim Bucher, Microsoft Ultimate TV
That last category includes standalone units as well as TVs with built-in PVR functions. One of the first such integrated products is the $900 PV-SS2710 from Panasonic, which combines a 27-inch PanaBlack television with the ReplayTV Showstopper PVR.
Some think such integration goes too far. Kris Narayan, founder and chairman of chip vendor TeleCruz, argues that the electronics, but not the hard disk, should go inside the TV. The standalone PVR isn't taking the market by storm, he says, so why develop a fancy integrated unit that won't sell? Meanwhile, today's TVs already contain processors, graphics chips, and other hardware that PVRs need.
The bill of materials for a TV with PVR electronics and a hard disk could run as little as $200 above that for a normal TV, he says. In fact, Narayan expects that we'll eventually be able to buy a TV that contains the PVR electronics but no storage, for just $50 more than a regular TV. TeleCruz's upcoming Cruzer 8 chip enables PVR functions.
But what about the storage? It's an issue of paramount importance, and opinions vary widely. The hard disk is the most costly element of a PVR's bill of materials, but it's also a commodity item, and hard disk capacities are continuing their rapid increase. For these reasons, it may make sense to keep storage separate from the PVR's electronics—whether you're talking about PVR functions in a standalone unit, a set-top box, or a television. For more on storage scenarios, (see the sidebar, "Where to hoard?").
Returning to the question of whether TVs should subsume PVR functions, you can chalk up a "no" vote from Jas Saini, vice president for consumer devices at middleware provider NDS Group. He argues that set-top-box hardware increases in power every two to three years, while consumers expect high-end TVs to last a decade. Integration into the TV might be viable down the road, he admits, when we've realized higher levels of disk capacity and when PVR functionality has matured.
Another interesting scenario might see a PVR teaming up with a video-game console. Given that Microsoft is preparing for the release of its XBox game console, it's perhaps surprising to learn that Tim Bucher, vice president of consumer products at Microsoft's Ultimate TV division, doesn't see the game and PVR functions as compatible. He points to three issues. First is proximity. Will someone watch TV and play games in the same room? Next is the quality of the experience. Gaming requires powerful 3D graphics processing, whereas TV is all about tuners and decoding data streams. To combine these might degrade one of the experiences. Third is economics. "Can we really expect a universal box with games, digital cable TV, satellite TV and maybe other functions, at a price point that would be palatable to consumers?" he asks rhetorically. "Likely not."
Bucher goes on to note that cable and satellite operators subsidize the cost of set-top boxes, because their main concern is signing consumers up for revenue-generating services. They have no incentive to create a box that would put competing or distracting services at the consumers' fingertips. Furthermore, trying to build a product that would comply with the requirements of multiple services would be a nightmare.
Finally, doesn't it make sense for a PC, which already has a hard disk and ample computing power, to serve as a PVR? Steve Shannon, vice president of marketing for ReplayTV (now part of SONICblue), believes that while the scenario is feasible, and products to enable it are on the market, they won't become very popular. Most consumers would rather not bother with finding the right jacks, getting the proper cables, and setting up the software, he says. Most importantly, the deskbound PC doesn't suit couch potatoes. "It's a PC experience, not a TV experience," he concludes.
Nonetheless, last fall Microsoft announced a software component for Windows XP that enables PCs to perform interactive-TV tasks including PVR and EPG. However, Laura Norman, marketing manager for the Microsoft TV group, doesn't see PC-based PVR competing with living-room systems.
Let's build
Take a superficial glance at PVR functions, and you might assume the devices would be easy to design. Not so, according to people in the industry. Building a PVR is much more than adding some electronics and a hard disk. The software, in particular, needs to be highly sophisticated.
"OEMs are used to building a VCR, where it's a bounded problem—a tape drive, then NTSC in and out," says Cachevision's Johnson. "[With a PVR,] not only is the problem no longer bounded, but you're also dealing with outside information. What form will the EPG take? What's the format of the delivery of the data associated with services?" With traditional consumer-electronics gadgets, component suppliers often deliver full reference designs. "With PVRs, these designs are perhaps 70 percent complete," Johnson notes. "The remaining 30 percent presents a formidable challenge."
In looking for assistance, happily your choices are widening. "The contribution from a PVR design house can be as basic as file-management software to the other extreme: a separate appliance that connects to a set-top box over a serial cable," Johnson says. "Thus the price range goes from tens to hundreds of dollars depending on the circumstances."
Having found only lukewarm success with dedicated units, major suppliers of standalone boxes have reexamined their philosophies and are now looking to license their technologies.
Even TiVo is switching gears along these lines. Malone notes that the company started out thinking it would develop and license platforms, reserving most of its effort for services. Given market realities, though, the firm has refocused. It no longer just supplies a reference platform, but is also looking to license its intellectual property. Along these lines, TiVo has secured several patents for PVR technology, and while competitors say there are many ways to perform a given task, Malone responds that most of TiVo's big competitors have also come to the table to talk about cross licensing.
To see where special technology comes into play, consider scheduling and disk management. It's easy to implement a FIFO (first in, first out) scheme and erase a file after use. In contrast, TiVo's per-show scheduler and file manager examine the disk and, if there's not enough room to record an upcoming show, make suggestions about which shows the user might choose to erase. This all happens in an inexpensive hardware platform consisting of a PowerPC processor and 8 Mbytes of RAM.
Further, the file system works with both large blocks, such as TV programs, and small blocks, such as EPG data. Some competitive systems store EPG data in RAM, and it disappears if power fails. As another example of the complexity of PVR designs, EPG-related read and write activity on the disk in a poorly planned system could interfere with recording, possibly leading to problems with audio-video synchronization.
“Consumption of these devices will be enormous. We expect that the number of hard disks consumed in PVRs could be as large as the number in the PC space.”
Richard Johnson, Cachevision
Product teams looking for design help might also turn to the other major player, ReplayTV, which until recently also sold a standalone unit. Sluggish acceptance of the PVR concept prompted the firm to exit the retail market and adopt a licensing stance. However, the firm was recently acquired by SONICblue and shortly thereafter announced a new line of high-end PVRs (see "Replay returns" in this month's GEAR section).
UK-based Pace Micro Technology, which claims to be the world's largest dedicated supplier of set-top boxes, is moving in a similar direction. Pace has developed its first PVR for use with Britain's BSkyB satellite system. Although the company has traditionally held its technology closely, Pace is now looking at licensing its know-how, according to Terry Glatt, the company's director of technology for the Americas.
Hard code
As noted above, hardware is easy compared to the complex software needed to manage PVR features. Focusing on that end, Microsoft offers its Microsoft TV software platform, which aims to help network operators provide interactive TV services to their customers. The group produces middleware for both the set-top box and the cable head-end, but not end-user applications. An example of a head-end application would be pushing targeted ads to users based on their viewing habits.
The MSTV platform also includes software licensed from others, such as conditional-access middleware from NDS Group. For hardware assistance, Microsoft TV is working with Broadcom to supply a reference platform for implementing PVR functions on MSTV-based set-top boxes. Microsoft is particularly proud of a real-world deployment with TV Cabo Portugal, claiming it's the first commercial interactive cable service to include PVR functionality delivered via a set-top receiver.
Yet another group at Microsoft is responsible for Ultimate TV, a service built on Microsoft TV. Whereas MSTV deals with middleware, this group focuses on consumer services and also creates an infrastructure into which Microsoft can deploy such services. The Ultimate TV group creates and licenses reference designs for set-top boxes to manufacturers, but its revenues come primarily from the pockets of consumers in the form of monthly service fees. The best-known implementation is a deal whereby Ultimate TV is integrated into a box offered by DirecTV for its satellite service. This unit combines satellite programming, PVR functions, live TV controls, interactive TV, and Internet access.
Chip developments
In addition to licensing software to Microsoft and others, NDS Group also provides technology to chip vendors. The cornerstone of the company's approach is a technology called RASP (random access to scrambled content protocol). The technology inserts access points into encrypted content on a hard disk, allowing a PVR to more easily implement modes such as fast-forward and rewind. If the content has the right attributes, the technology can also provide an analog output suitable for recording by a VCR. Adding RASP to a processor takes just a few hundred logic gates.
Conexant is one of a half dozen companies incorporating RASP into ICs. And these specialized devices should lower consumer prices for PVRs. "From a semiconductor standpoint, TiVo and Replay boxes are cobbled together with existing technology," says Jamie Ching, MPEG product-line manager with Conexant. "But now we're getting technology directed at PVRs." For instance, early encoder/decoder chips were designed for single-stream applications, but upcoming chips have dual inputs and outputs, thus enabling the critical ability to watch one program while recording another.
“From a semiconductor standpoint, TiVo and Replay boxes are cobbled together with existing technology. But now we’re getting technology directed at PVRs.”
Jamie Ching, Conexant
Another chipmaker, Broadcom, also focuses on TV encoder/decoder chips with integrated MPEG operations. The firm's latest device is a dual-channel MPEG encoder that also handles four audio channels. "It's important to incorporate more functionality into chips to make them more cost effective for embedding in TVs," says Brian Lemelman, Broadcom's director of digital video technology marketing.
Developments are taking place on the CPU side, as well. For example, Equator Technologies has developed the MAP-CA, dubbed a BSP (broadband signal processor). The device is fully programmable using the C programming language. According to Ben Cutler, cofounder and vice president of corporate planning and business development, this speeds up the development process because programmers are more productive in C. By contrast, DSPs (digital signal processors) often require assembly-language programming—which is more complex and time consuming. Cutler says that none of Equator's existing customers has written any assembly code whatsoever.
Targeting video-intensive applications, the chip delivers 30 billion operations/sec. On the PVR front, the firm has signed an agreement to integrate wavelet-based video compression from Droplet Technology. A single MAP-CA chip can execute two Droplet encoders and one decoder. Equator's devices run at 250 to 300 MHz. Basic PVR functions consume 120 MHz. Adding functions such as live pause increases the load to about 200 MHz, meaning there's still power left over for extra features. Recently, Equator unveiled its Dolphin reference design platform based on the MAP-CA. Samsung is using Dolphin as the basis of its SMT F300 interactive set-top box.
Author information
Contributing Editor Paul G Schreier (aa1mi@ARRL.net) is president of Amitech Marketing (Berne, Switzerland), which specializes in high-tech marketing. He doesn't own a PVR, but if he did, it might be filled with Notre Dame football games.
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