Thursday, August 21, 2008 10:57:41 AM
I quickly ran the numbers based on a $24/Bbl proven reserve value.
If they prove 14 Billion recoverable (that is the combined value (risk and unrisked) given by the latest Geophysical sureveys) the our share price would come in around $80 a share.
That assumes the recoverable oil is averaged evenly between zones 2,3 & 4. if the predominance of oil is found in zones 2 & 4 (which I assume will be the case) then that number (sp) goes up.
What I am excited about, is that, if in the first 5 well drilling program between 4th qtr 2008 thru all of 2009, they prove just 4 Billion Barrels our SP should hit $23/share (again could be higher depending on which zones the oil is found in). And if I remember correctly, the 4 billion recoverable number was close to the number that the geophysical surveys said should be there under the RISKED scenario.
I had asked about 3 weeks ago (on IHUB) what a fair book value would be for proven reserves and most responses were in the range of $12.50 to $15/Bbl. If $24/Bbl is correct then shareholders have something to get very excited about. Essentially, if $24/Bbl is a market approved value price for Risked reserves, coupled with the fact that Oil for all practical purposes will continue to stay over $100/Bbl. Then By my calulations this stock should be trading today no less than $10/share.
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