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Re: wise1man post# 14580

Thursday, 08/14/2008 3:07:25 AM

Thursday, August 14, 2008 3:07:25 AM

Post# of 32583
yep, I agree, and these are just observations so I don't think you or I have to state that it's our opinion. It is factually true by way of observation that UVSE has closed green three days in a row this week, perhaps in anticipation of the earnings report or perhaps due to the gradually recovering oil-related sector. We must keep in mind that UVSE's core business is 80% natural gas production and 20% crude oil production, so given that natural gas futures have priced down -$4, it is understandable that UVSE has declined as well. I think these are just two of the variables that are easiest to identify but we also need to take into account the activity of MMs, the activity of individuals still with long positions anywhere from 0.05 to 0.10, the activity of shorts, the activity of any remaining CD holders, and the activity of potential new buyers. Some of the buying can be attributed to individuals adding to their positions to lower their cost-basis, and these individuals are the ones with stronger conviction in the company but who have been in the stock for too long and will sell when they are in positive territory. I have no idea how much short interest is in this stock but there is probably some shorts nervous at this point in time. And as for potential buyers, there's many who trade based on technicals alone like you said and the technicals are aligning in favor of UVSE gaining from here given the fact that it has already dropped by -50% several times and is just floating above its MACD cross over point and RSI oversold level. All other indicators also show an increasing trend. And the fact that the upcoming quarterly earnings report will be the FIRST report in which the company reports a profit only adds more favor to having a long position here. Also, we need to realize that the news about the AS increase has already been priced into the stock when it dropped in early July. This stock then took another hit from the Lone Oak news. So we're basically sitting on the floor that rested under it's previous floor of 0.012, and remember, that last time it was at 0.012 it moved up to 0.039. Given that the Lone Oak news AND the AS news only dropped the stock to a lowest low of 0.010 confirms that this is the new and absolute low. Thus it is more probable that UVSE will gain from here.



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